**Tight U.S. cattle supplies from a record-low herd remain the dominant driver of ground beef prices near $6.89 per pound in mid-2026.** The national beef cow inventory stood at just 28.5 million head as of July 2026—the lowest since 1971—after years of drought-induced liquidation, with total cattle at multi-decade lows. USDA data show beef and veal prices up roughly 9-10% year-over-year through 2026, reflecting constrained slaughter and elevated feed/input costs. Recent administration plans to waive tariffs on up to 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef over 90 days aim to ease retail pressure but represent only a modest supply addition and could slow domestic herd rebuilding already underway at a modest pace. Wholesale and live cattle prices continue to reflect structural scarcity, with limited near-term relief expected before 2027-2028 absent major shifts in weather, feed costs, or import volumes.