Recent July 2026 data showed Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) rising 1.8% year-over-year, up from 1.6% in June, while the measure stripping out both food and energy reached 1.9%. Government energy subsidies have temporarily capped readings below the Bank of Japan's 2% target, yet yen depreciation, higher import costs from Middle East tensions, and AI-driven semiconductor demand are exerting upward pressure on goods and durable prices. The BOJ's July Outlook Report projects the fiscal 2026 core rate accelerating clearly above 2% in the second half, supported by ongoing wage-price pass-through, though fiscal measures introduce near-term volatility. With the two leading buckets nearly tied, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether subsidy effects or these structural cost pressures will dominate the 2026 average. Key near-term catalysts include the September 17-18 policy meeting and August CPI release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≤1.9% 48.9%
2.0-2.4% 49%
3.0-3.4% 2.6%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
$38,653 Vol.
$38,653 Vol.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
49%
2.0-2.4%
49%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
3%
3.5-3.9%
1%
4.0%+
<1%
≤1.9% 48.9%
2.0-2.4% 49%
3.0-3.4% 2.6%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
$38,653 Vol.
$38,653 Vol.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
$18,412 Vol.
49%
2.0-2.4%
$10,751 Vol.
49%
2.5-2.9%
$5,372 Vol.
1%
3.0-3.4%
$1,488 Vol.
3%
3.5-3.9%
$1,253 Vol.
1%
4.0%+
$1,377 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent July 2026 data showed Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) rising 1.8% year-over-year, up from 1.6% in June, while the measure stripping out both food and energy reached 1.9%. Government energy subsidies have temporarily capped readings below the Bank of Japan's 2% target, yet yen depreciation, higher import costs from Middle East tensions, and AI-driven semiconductor demand are exerting upward pressure on goods and durable prices. The BOJ's July Outlook Report projects the fiscal 2026 core rate accelerating clearly above 2% in the second half, supported by ongoing wage-price pass-through, though fiscal measures introduce near-term volatility. With the two leading buckets nearly tied, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether subsidy effects or these structural cost pressures will dominate the 2026 average. Key near-term catalysts include the September 17-18 policy meeting and August CPI release.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$38,653End Date
Jan 22, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent July 2026 data showed Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) rising 1.8% year-over-year, up from 1.6% in June, while the measure stripping out both food and energy reached 1.9%. Government energy subsidies have temporarily capped readings below the Bank of Japan's 2% target, yet yen depreciation, higher import costs from Middle East tensions, and AI-driven semiconductor demand are exerting upward pressure on goods and durable prices. The BOJ's July Outlook Report projects the fiscal 2026 core rate accelerating clearly above 2% in the second half, supported by ongoing wage-price pass-through, though fiscal measures introduce near-term volatility. With the two leading buckets nearly tied, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether subsidy effects or these structural cost pressures will dominate the 2026 average. Key near-term catalysts include the September 17-18 policy meeting and August CPI release.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$38,653End Date
Jan 22, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 data showed Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) rising 1.8% year-over-year, up from 1.6% in June, while the measure stripping out both food and energy reached 1.9%. Government energy subsidies have temporarily capped readings below the Bank of Japan's 2% target, yet yen depreciation, higher import costs from Middle East tensions, and AI-driven semiconductor demand are exerting upward pressure on goods and durable prices. The BOJ's July Outlook Report projects the fiscal 2026 core rate accelerating clearly above 2% in the second half, supported by ongoing wage-price pass-through, though fiscal measures introduce near-term volatility. With the two leading buckets nearly tied, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether subsidy effects or these structural cost pressures will dominate the 2026 average. Key near-term catalysts include the September 17-18 policy meeting and August CPI release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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