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Economy·NFP

How many jobs added in August?

icon for How many jobs added in August?
Economy·NFP

How many jobs added in August?

Sep 5

Sep 5

<-50k 37.8%

0 – 50k 24%

50k – 100k 11%

100k – 150k 8.5%

Polymarket

$28,879 Vol.

<-50k 37.8%

0 – 50k 24%

50k – 100k 11%

100k – 150k 8.5%

Polymarket

$28,879 Vol.

<-50k

$4,457 Vol.

38%

-50k – 0

$2,588 Vol.

4%

0 – 50k

$13,052 Vol.

24%

50k – 100k

$4,087 Vol.

23%

100k – 150k

$3,165 Vol.

9%

150k+

$1,530 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent labor market data has fueled trader caution ahead of the August nonfarm payrolls release, with rising initial claims, softer ADP private payroll figures, and a gradual uptick in the unemployment rate signaling cooling momentum. These trends align with the market-implied odds clustering around sub-100k gains or outright declines, reflecting expectations that slowing hiring and potential seasonal distortions could cap job growth well below the 150k–200k historical average. With the top three outcomes separated by just a few percentage points, sentiment hinges on final revisions, labor force participation shifts, and any last-minute data surprises that could tip consensus between contraction and modest expansion.

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$28,879
End Date
Sep 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent labor market data has fueled trader caution ahead of the August nonfarm payrolls release, with rising initial claims, softer ADP private payroll figures, and a gradual uptick in the unemployment rate signaling cooling momentum. These trends align with the market-implied odds clustering around sub-100k gains or outright declines, reflecting expectations that slowing hiring and potential seasonal distortions could cap job growth well below the 150k–200k historical average. With the top three outcomes separated by just a few percentage points, sentiment hinges on final revisions, labor force participation shifts, and any last-minute data surprises that could tip consensus between contraction and modest expansion.

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$28,879
End Date
Sep 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many jobs added in August?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<-50k" at 38%, followed by "0 – 50k" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many jobs added in August?" has generated $28.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many jobs added in August?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many jobs added in August?" is "<-50k" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "0 – 50k" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many jobs added in August?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.