Recent July nonfarm payrolls contraction of 23,000 jobs, paired with a preliminary benchmark revision lowering prior estimates by 79,000 through March 2026, has shifted trader focus toward downside risks for August. Soft hiring trends, downward revisions across recent months, and subdued ADP private-payroll signals reinforce expectations of muted or negative growth, elevating the implied probability of outcomes below 50,000. Consensus economist forecasts cluster near 45,000–50,000, yet elevated uncertainty around potential rebound versus persistent cooling keeps the top two buckets closely contested. Low initial claims and a stable 4.1% unemployment rate underscore limited layoffs but fail to offset weak demand signals ahead of the September 4 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0 – 50k 22%
<-50k 17.0%
100k – 150k 11.9%
50k – 100k 11%
$28,993 Vol.
$28,993 Vol.
<-50k
36%
-50k – 0
6%
0 – 50k
22%
50k – 100k
28%
100k – 150k
12%
150k+
5%
0 – 50k 22%
<-50k 17.0%
100k – 150k 11.9%
50k – 100k 11%
$28,993 Vol.
$28,993 Vol.
<-50k
36%
-50k – 0
6%
0 – 50k
22%
50k – 100k
28%
100k – 150k
12%
150k+
5%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July nonfarm payrolls contraction of 23,000 jobs, paired with a preliminary benchmark revision lowering prior estimates by 79,000 through March 2026, has shifted trader focus toward downside risks for August. Soft hiring trends, downward revisions across recent months, and subdued ADP private-payroll signals reinforce expectations of muted or negative growth, elevating the implied probability of outcomes below 50,000. Consensus economist forecasts cluster near 45,000–50,000, yet elevated uncertainty around potential rebound versus persistent cooling keeps the top two buckets closely contested. Low initial claims and a stable 4.1% unemployment rate underscore limited layoffs but fail to offset weak demand signals ahead of the September 4 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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