**Mojtaba Khamenei has served as Iran's Supreme Leader since his March 2026 election by the Assembly of Experts following his father Ali Khamenei's death in late-February US-Israeli strikes that triggered a brief war.** Trader probabilities for his removal by year-end remain low (around 17% on related Polymarket contracts), reflecting the regime's emphasis on continuity through IRGC-aligned appointments, a collective interim leadership structure, and recent state media reports of meetings with President Pezeshkian plus video releases addressing health rumors. Primary drivers include Khamenei's limited public profile and opaque decision-making since assuming power, alongside ongoing post-war negotiations and internal security reshuffles that have not yet produced visible challenges to his position. No scheduled events such as Assembly of Experts sessions or major diplomatic summits are positioned to force an immediate transition in the near term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,152,051 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
August 31
<1%
September 30
4%
October 31
7%
November 30
11%
December 31
18%
June 30, 2027
25%
$24,152,051 Vol.
August 31
$1,478,316 Vol.
<1%
September 30
$505,136 Vol.
4%
October 31
$26,246 Vol.
7%
November 30
$22,984 Vol.
11%
December 31
$4,179,236 Vol.
18%
June 30, 2027
$252,410 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei has served as Iran's Supreme Leader since his March 2026 election by the Assembly of Experts following his father Ali Khamenei's death in late-February US-Israeli strikes that triggered a brief war.** Trader probabilities for his removal by year-end remain low (around 17% on related Polymarket contracts), reflecting the regime's emphasis on continuity through IRGC-aligned appointments, a collective interim leadership structure, and recent state media reports of meetings with President Pezeshkian plus video releases addressing health rumors. Primary drivers include Khamenei's limited public profile and opaque decision-making since assuming power, alongside ongoing post-war negotiations and internal security reshuffles that have not yet produced visible challenges to his position. No scheduled events such as Assembly of Experts sessions or major diplomatic summits are positioned to force an immediate transition in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Volume
$24,152,051End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei has served as Iran's Supreme Leader since his March 2026 election by the Assembly of Experts following his father Ali Khamenei's death in late-February US-Israeli strikes that triggered a brief war.** Trader probabilities for his removal by year-end remain low (around 17% on related Polymarket contracts), reflecting the regime's emphasis on continuity through IRGC-aligned appointments, a collective interim leadership structure, and recent state media reports of meetings with President Pezeshkian plus video releases addressing health rumors. Primary drivers include Khamenei's limited public profile and opaque decision-making since assuming power, alongside ongoing post-war negotiations and internal security reshuffles that have not yet produced visible challenges to his position. No scheduled events such as Assembly of Experts sessions or major diplomatic summits are positioned to force an immediate transition in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,152,051End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Mojtaba Khamenei has served as Iran's Supreme Leader since his March 2026 election by the Assembly of Experts following his father Ali Khamenei's death in late-February US-Israeli strikes that triggered a brief war.** Trader probabilities for his removal by year-end remain low (around 17% on related Polymarket contracts), reflecting the regime's emphasis on continuity through IRGC-aligned appointments, a collective interim leadership structure, and recent state media reports of meetings with President Pezeshkian plus video releases addressing health rumors. Primary drivers include Khamenei's limited public profile and opaque decision-making since assuming power, alongside ongoing post-war negotiations and internal security reshuffles that have not yet produced visible challenges to his position. No scheduled events such as Assembly of Experts sessions or major diplomatic summits are positioned to force an immediate transition in the near term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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