The US trade embargo, reinforced by Executive Order 14404 in May 2026 and subsequent Treasury and State Department designations targeting Cuban state entities including GAESA-linked firms, mining, energy, and logistics sectors, continues to prohibit American companies from commercial operations on the island. Cuban officials announced in mid-June an intent to permit foreign franchises and private restaurant chains under conditions of “equality,” yet President Díaz-Canel offered only general remarks without naming US brands or confirming negotiations. No McDonald’s statements, investment approvals, or policy shifts have emerged to signal a breakthrough before year-end, and ongoing sanctions escalation through August has further raised compliance risks for any potential deal. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against an announcement this calendar year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The US trade embargo, reinforced by Executive Order 14404 in May 2026 and subsequent Treasury and State Department designations targeting Cuban state entities including GAESA-linked firms, mining, energy, and logistics sectors, continues to prohibit American companies from commercial operations on the island. Cuban officials announced in mid-June an intent to permit foreign franchises and private restaurant chains under conditions of “equality,” yet President Díaz-Canel offered only general remarks without naming US brands or confirming negotiations. No McDonald’s statements, investment approvals, or policy shifts have emerged to signal a breakthrough before year-end, and ongoing sanctions escalation through August has further raised compliance risks for any potential deal. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against an announcement this calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 25, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,431End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The US trade embargo, reinforced by Executive Order 14404 in May 2026 and subsequent Treasury and State Department designations targeting Cuban state entities including GAESA-linked firms, mining, energy, and logistics sectors, continues to prohibit American companies from commercial operations on the island. Cuban officials announced in mid-June an intent to permit foreign franchises and private restaurant chains under conditions of “equality,” yet President Díaz-Canel offered only general remarks without naming US brands or confirming negotiations. No McDonald’s statements, investment approvals, or policy shifts have emerged to signal a breakthrough before year-end, and ongoing sanctions escalation through August has further raised compliance risks for any potential deal. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against an announcement this calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,431End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US trade embargo, reinforced by Executive Order 14404 in May 2026 and subsequent Treasury and State Department designations targeting Cuban state entities including GAESA-linked firms, mining, energy, and logistics sectors, continues to prohibit American companies from commercial operations on the island. Cuban officials announced in mid-June an intent to permit foreign franchises and private restaurant chains under conditions of “equality,” yet President Díaz-Canel offered only general remarks without naming US brands or confirming negotiations. No McDonald’s statements, investment approvals, or policy shifts have emerged to signal a breakthrough before year-end, and ongoing sanctions escalation through August has further raised compliance risks for any potential deal. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against an announcement this calendar year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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