**US sanctions remain the decisive barrier.** The longstanding American trade embargo, reinforced by multiple 2026 executive orders under the Trump administration, prohibits US-headquartered firms such as McDonald’s from conducting commercial operations in Cuba without specific licenses that have not been issued. Secondary sanctions targeting Cuban military-linked entities (GAESA and others), oil import restrictions, and new designations have further deterred foreign investment and complicated any potential franchise entry. Cuba’s June 2026 economic reforms opened the formal possibility of foreign fast-food chains, yet Cuban leaders framed any opening around “equal conditions” without naming McDonald’s or confirming US regulatory relief. With no public indication from McDonald’s of interest or licensing progress, and only months remaining in 2026, traders assign a 93% probability that no announcement will occur.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**US sanctions remain the decisive barrier.** The longstanding American trade embargo, reinforced by multiple 2026 executive orders under the Trump administration, prohibits US-headquartered firms such as McDonald’s from conducting commercial operations in Cuba without specific licenses that have not been issued. Secondary sanctions targeting Cuban military-linked entities (GAESA and others), oil import restrictions, and new designations have further deterred foreign investment and complicated any potential franchise entry.
Cuba’s June 2026 economic reforms opened the formal possibility of foreign fast-food chains, yet Cuban leaders framed any opening around “equal conditions” without naming McDonald’s or confirming US regulatory relief. With no public indication from McDonald’s of interest or licensing progress, and only months remaining in 2026, traders assign a 93% probability that no announcement will occur.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 25, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,431End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**US sanctions remain the decisive barrier.** The longstanding American trade embargo, reinforced by multiple 2026 executive orders under the Trump administration, prohibits US-headquartered firms such as McDonald’s from conducting commercial operations in Cuba without specific licenses that have not been issued. Secondary sanctions targeting Cuban military-linked entities (GAESA and others), oil import restrictions, and new designations have further deterred foreign investment and complicated any potential franchise entry.
Cuba’s June 2026 economic reforms opened the formal possibility of foreign fast-food chains, yet Cuban leaders framed any opening around “equal conditions” without naming McDonald’s or confirming US regulatory relief. With no public indication from McDonald’s of interest or licensing progress, and only months remaining in 2026, traders assign a 93% probability that no announcement will occur.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,431End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US sanctions remain the decisive barrier.** The longstanding American trade embargo, reinforced by multiple 2026 executive orders under the Trump administration, prohibits US-headquartered firms such as McDonald’s from conducting commercial operations in Cuba without specific licenses that have not been issued. Secondary sanctions targeting Cuban military-linked entities (GAESA and others), oil import restrictions, and new designations have further deterred foreign investment and complicated any potential franchise entry. Cuba’s June 2026 economic reforms opened the formal possibility of foreign fast-food chains, yet Cuban leaders framed any opening around “equal conditions” without naming McDonald’s or confirming US regulatory relief. With no public indication from McDonald’s of interest or licensing progress, and only months remaining in 2026, traders assign a 93% probability that no announcement will occur.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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