Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% while trimmed mean inflation held steady at 3.6%—well above the RBA’s 2–3% target—combined with the central bank’s hawkish August statement, underpin trader positioning for the September 29 decision. The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% but highlighted upside risks from the Middle East conflict, oil prices, and domestic capacity pressures, keeping a 25 basis point hike in play. Market-implied odds of roughly 59% for no change and 38% for a 25 basis point increase reflect the balance between restrictive financial conditions and persistent inflation, with negligible probabilities assigned to cuts given limited evidence of sufficient disinflation ahead of the meeting. Key data releases on GDP and labor market conditions will likely influence final pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 59.0%
25 bps increase 37.9%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$37,480 Vol.
$37,480 Vol.
Sep 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
59%
25 bps increase
38%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 59.0%
25 bps increase 37.9%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$37,480 Vol.
$37,480 Vol.
Sep 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,043 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$4,475 Vol.
<1%
No change
$19,833 Vol.
59%
25 bps increase
$11,299 Vol.
38%
50+ bps increase
$830 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% while trimmed mean inflation held steady at 3.6%—well above the RBA’s 2–3% target—combined with the central bank’s hawkish August statement, underpin trader positioning for the September 29 decision. The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% but highlighted upside risks from the Middle East conflict, oil prices, and domestic capacity pressures, keeping a 25 basis point hike in play. Market-implied odds of roughly 59% for no change and 38% for a 25 basis point increase reflect the balance between restrictive financial conditions and persistent inflation, with negligible probabilities assigned to cuts given limited evidence of sufficient disinflation ahead of the meeting. Key data releases on GDP and labor market conditions will likely influence final pricing.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volume
$37,480End Date
Sep 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% while trimmed mean inflation held steady at 3.6%—well above the RBA’s 2–3% target—combined with the central bank’s hawkish August statement, underpin trader positioning for the September 29 decision. The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% but highlighted upside risks from the Middle East conflict, oil prices, and domestic capacity pressures, keeping a 25 basis point hike in play. Market-implied odds of roughly 59% for no change and 38% for a 25 basis point increase reflect the balance between restrictive financial conditions and persistent inflation, with negligible probabilities assigned to cuts given limited evidence of sufficient disinflation ahead of the meeting. Key data releases on GDP and labor market conditions will likely influence final pricing.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$37,480End Date
Sep 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% while trimmed mean inflation held steady at 3.6%—well above the RBA’s 2–3% target—combined with the central bank’s hawkish August statement, underpin trader positioning for the September 29 decision. The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% but highlighted upside risks from the Middle East conflict, oil prices, and domestic capacity pressures, keeping a 25 basis point hike in play. Market-implied odds of roughly 59% for no change and 38% for a 25 basis point increase reflect the balance between restrictive financial conditions and persistent inflation, with negligible probabilities assigned to cuts given limited evidence of sufficient disinflation ahead of the meeting. Key data releases on GDP and labor market conditions will likely influence final pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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