The 2026-27 Serie A campaign opened in late August with Venezia, Frosinone, and Monza—the promoted sides from Serie B—widely viewed as the core of the relegation picture. Pre-season models from Opta and others assign Monza the highest drop probability (around 40-70% across simulations) due to squad depth concerns and a tough early schedule, followed closely by Frosinone, which has never survived prior top-flight spells. Venezia benefits from stronger attacking options like Akor Adams but faces the typical promoted-side adjustment. Lecce, after barely avoiding relegation last term with minimal goal output, joins them as a frequent candidate. Early matchday results have already highlighted the promoted clubs' struggles, while mid-table sides like Cagliari and Parma could enter the conversation if they suffer poor starts. Historical patterns show at least one promoted team usually returns to Serie B immediately.