The 2026 US Open men’s draw has tightened considerably after Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal with a right knee injury and Carlos Alcaraz’s return from a four-month right-wrist layoff with no competitive matches since April. Alcaraz holds the market lead at 27% as the defending champion with proven hard-court pedigree, yet limited match sharpness creates uncertainty. Alexander Zverev, now the top seed after his French Open title and Wimbledon final, sits at 21.7% with strong recent Grand Slam momentum on a surface that suits his serve. Novak Djokovic’s experience keeps him relevant at 11.3%, while younger talents like Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils benefit from depth in the field. These overlapping factors—absent elite form, injury recoveries, and hard-court variables—compress probabilities tightly among the top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCarlos Alcaraz 28%
Alexander Zverev 21.6%
Novak Djokovic 11.1%
Ben Shelton 8.2%
$11,268,485 Vol.
$11,268,485 Vol.
Carlos Alcaraz
28%
Alexander Zverev
22%
Novak Djokovic
11%
Ben Shelton
8%
Arthur Fils
8%
Taylor Fritz
6%
Felix Auger Aliassime
3%
Daniil Medvedev
2%
Jakub Mensik
2%
Frances Tiafoe
2%
Flavio Cobolli
1%
Lorenzo Musetti
1%
Jiri Lehecka
1%
Andrey Rublev
1%
Alexander Bublik
1%
Matteo Berrettini
<1%
Hubert Hurkacz
<1%
Grigor Dimitrov
<1%
Jack Draper
<1%
Joao Fonseca
<1%
Holger Rune
<1%
Carlos Alcaraz 28%
Alexander Zverev 21.6%
Novak Djokovic 11.1%
Ben Shelton 8.2%
$11,268,485 Vol.
$11,268,485 Vol.
Carlos Alcaraz
28%
Alexander Zverev
22%
Novak Djokovic
11%
Ben Shelton
8%
Arthur Fils
8%
Taylor Fritz
6%
Felix Auger Aliassime
3%
Daniil Medvedev
2%
Jakub Mensik
2%
Frances Tiafoe
2%
Flavio Cobolli
1%
Lorenzo Musetti
1%
Jiri Lehecka
1%
Andrey Rublev
1%
Alexander Bublik
1%
Matteo Berrettini
<1%
Hubert Hurkacz
<1%
Grigor Dimitrov
<1%
Jack Draper
<1%
Joao Fonseca
<1%
Holger Rune
<1%
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 US Open men’s draw has tightened considerably after Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal with a right knee injury and Carlos Alcaraz’s return from a four-month right-wrist layoff with no competitive matches since April. Alcaraz holds the market lead at 27% as the defending champion with proven hard-court pedigree, yet limited match sharpness creates uncertainty. Alexander Zverev, now the top seed after his French Open title and Wimbledon final, sits at 21.7% with strong recent Grand Slam momentum on a surface that suits his serve. Novak Djokovic’s experience keeps him relevant at 11.3%, while younger talents like Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils benefit from depth in the field. These overlapping factors—absent elite form, injury recoveries, and hard-court variables—compress probabilities tightly among the top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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