Carlos Alcaraz’s return from a four-month wrist layoff to defend his US Open title, combined with Jannik Sinner’s late withdrawal due to a knee injury, has reshaped the men’s draw and boosted implied probabilities for several top contenders to reach the semifinals. Alexander Zverev enters as the top seed and recent French Open champion with strong recent form, while Novak Djokovic, Ben Shelton, Taylor Fritz, and Arthur Fils are positioned as realistic semifinal threats on the hard courts. Widespread injuries across the field, limited match play for Alcaraz, and the absence of multiple high-ranked players have increased uncertainty, favoring players with proven hard-court results and favorable draw sections in the early rounds starting August 30.