The Uruguayan Primera División determines relegation via a two-season points-per-game average (2025 + 2026), placing the 13th spot as the final safe position ahead of the bottom three. With roughly 25 matches completed in 2026 and the Clausura tournament just underway, teams such as Liverpool Montevideo, Deportivo Maldonado, Danubio, Cerro, and Albion remain tightly grouped because their final averages hinge on remaining results rather than current form alone. Liverpool’s strong Clausura start (9 points from three matches) and Maldonado’s solid Apertura showing contrast with Danubio’s weaker 2026 output, while mid-table sides like Cerro and Wanderers retain realistic paths to climb or slip depending on upcoming fixtures, transfers during the current window, and consistency over the balance of the campaign. This leaves implied probabilities clustered as traders weigh the extended schedule and limited separation in the averages.