**No** holds a commanding 91.4% implied probability because no credible signals point to an ecumenical council convening this year. Pope Leo XIV has focused recent audiences on deepening reception of Vatican II’s liturgical reforms rather than launching a successor gathering, while the Vatican advances the Synod on Synodality through a planned 2028 ecclesial assembly that falls well short of conciliar status. Historical precedent reinforces the consensus: full councils require multi-year preparation, broad consultation, and explicit convocation, none of which have materialized. Trader conviction rests on this absence of momentum and Pope Francis’s earlier assessment that the Church must first implement Vatican II. A realistic upset would require an abrupt papal announcement before year-end, an event without precedent in recent decades and at odds with the current emphasis on synodal processes over another council.