Recent polling for the November 28 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a consistent two-party-preferred lead over Labor, typically in the 52–57 range, amid 12 years of Labor government and voter fatigue. The July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced limited immediate improvement in Labor’s primary vote, which has hovered near 23–28 percent. One Nation has drawn significant support in outer and regional areas, reaching the low-to-mid 20s in most surveys and fragmenting the vote, yet preference flows have generally favored the Coalition. Traders’ 78 percent implied probability for a Liberal–National victory reflects this sustained polling advantage and the structural challenges facing an incumbent after multiple terms, with the election three months away.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLiberal–National 78%
Labor 20%
One Nation 2.7%
Greens 2.5%
$10,532 Vol.
$10,532 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
78%
Labor
20%
One Nation
3%
Greens
3%
Liberal–National 78%
Labor 20%
One Nation 2.7%
Greens 2.5%
$10,532 Vol.
$10,532 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
$6,357 Vol.
78%
Labor
$1,729 Vol.
20%
One Nation
$2,255 Vol.
3%
Greens
$192 Vol.
3%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 28 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a consistent two-party-preferred lead over Labor, typically in the 52–57 range, amid 12 years of Labor government and voter fatigue. The July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced limited immediate improvement in Labor’s primary vote, which has hovered near 23–28 percent. One Nation has drawn significant support in outer and regional areas, reaching the low-to-mid 20s in most surveys and fragmenting the vote, yet preference flows have generally favored the Coalition. Traders’ 78 percent implied probability for a Liberal–National victory reflects this sustained polling advantage and the structural challenges facing an incumbent after multiple terms, with the election three months away.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$10,532End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 28 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a consistent two-party-preferred lead over Labor, typically in the 52–57 range, amid 12 years of Labor government and voter fatigue. The July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced limited immediate improvement in Labor’s primary vote, which has hovered near 23–28 percent. One Nation has drawn significant support in outer and regional areas, reaching the low-to-mid 20s in most surveys and fragmenting the vote, yet preference flows have generally favored the Coalition. Traders’ 78 percent implied probability for a Liberal–National victory reflects this sustained polling advantage and the structural challenges facing an incumbent after multiple terms, with the election three months away.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$10,532End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the November 28 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a consistent two-party-preferred lead over Labor, typically in the 52–57 range, amid 12 years of Labor government and voter fatigue. The July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced limited immediate improvement in Labor’s primary vote, which has hovered near 23–28 percent. One Nation has drawn significant support in outer and regional areas, reaching the low-to-mid 20s in most surveys and fragmenting the vote, yet preference flows have generally favored the Coalition. Traders’ 78 percent implied probability for a Liberal–National victory reflects this sustained polling advantage and the structural challenges facing an incumbent after multiple terms, with the election three months away.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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