**Heavy rainfall from a stalled frontal system in mid-August 2026 drove record or near-record flooding along the White River in central Indiana, with the peak stage at Indianapolis gauges exceeding 20 feet.** Official NWS and USGS observations, corroborated by Indianapolis Department of Public Works reports, show the river crested at 21.18 feet at the 82nd Street/Nora gauge on August 15—well above the moderate flood threshold of 20 feet and approaching the long-standing record of 22.4 feet set in 1913. Upstream crests in Noblesville and Anderson surpassed prior benchmarks (reaching ~24+ feet), feeding substantial runoff downstream into Marion County. By late August, levels at key Indianapolis sites (Raymond Street, Michigan Street) had receded to ~5–8 feet with no active flooding, confirming the event’s maximum had already occurred. This observed crest data underpins the market’s 98% implied probability for “Over 20 ft.” Only a major revision to official stage records or a narrowly defined gauge threshold excluding the primary measurement sites could realistically shift the outcome, scenarios considered highly improbable given multiple confirming sources.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat will the White River at Indianapolis peak at during the August 2026 floods?
What will the White River at Indianapolis peak at during the August 2026 floods?
Over 20 ft 98.0%
17–20 ft <1%
Under 14 ft <1%
14–17 ft <1%
$14,630 Vol.
$14,630 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Under 14 ft
<1%
14–17 ft
<1%
17–20 ft
<1%
Over 20 ft
98%
Over 20 ft 98.0%
17–20 ft <1%
Under 14 ft <1%
14–17 ft <1%
$14,630 Vol.
$14,630 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Under 14 ft
$1,478 Vol.
<1%
14–17 ft
$1,688 Vol.
<1%
17–20 ft
$2,592 Vol.
<1%
Over 20 ft
$8,872 Vol.
98%
This market resolves "Yes" if the maximum gage height recorded at USGS streamgage 03353000 (White River at Indianapolis, IN) between market creation and 11:59 PM EDT August 31, 2026 is less than 14.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Resolution is based on the peak gage height value recorded during the specified window as published by USGS at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-03353000#dataTypeId=continuous-00065-0&period=P7D&showFieldMeasurements=true. USGS real-time data is provisional and subject to revision; the last provisional value published by USGS for the specified window as of 11:59 PM EDT September 1, 2026 governs, regardless of any USGS revision, approval, or finalization published after that time. For reference, NWS designates flood stage at this location as 16.0 feet. The primary resolution source is USGS data for streamgage 03353000; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing USGS data may also be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the maximum gage height recorded at USGS streamgage 03353000 (White River at Indianapolis, IN) between market creation and 11:59 PM EDT August 31, 2026 is at or above 14.00 feet and below 17.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Resolution is based on the peak gage height value recorded during the specified window as published by USGS at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-03353000#dataTypeId=continuous-00065-0&period=P7D&showFieldMeasurements=true. USGS real-time data is provisional and subject to revision; the last provisional value published by USGS for the specified window as of 11:59 PM EDT September 1, 2026 governs, regardless of any USGS revision, approval, or finalization published after that time. For reference, NWS designates flood stage at this location as 16.0 feet. The primary resolution source is USGS data for streamgage 03353000; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing USGS data may also be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the maximum gage height recorded at USGS streamgage 03353000 (White River at Indianapolis, IN) between market creation and 11:59 PM EDT August 31, 2026 is at or above 17.00 feet and below 20.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Resolution is based on the peak gage height value recorded during the specified window as published by USGS at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-03353000#dataTypeId=continuous-00065-0&period=P7D&showFieldMeasurements=true. USGS real-time data is provisional and subject to revision; the last provisional value published by USGS for the specified window as of 11:59 PM EDT September 1, 2026 governs, regardless of any USGS revision, approval, or finalization published after that time. For reference, NWS designates flood stage at this location as 16.0 feet. The primary resolution source is USGS data for streamgage 03353000; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing USGS data may also be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the maximum gage height recorded at USGS streamgage 03353000 (White River at Indianapolis, IN) between market creation and 11:59 PM EDT August 31, 2026 is at or above 20.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Resolution is based on the peak gage height value recorded during the specified window as published by USGS at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-03353000#dataTypeId=continuous-00065-0&period=P7D&showFieldMeasurements=true. USGS real-time data is provisional and subject to revision; the last provisional value published by USGS for the specified window as of 11:59 PM EDT September 1, 2026 governs, regardless of any USGS revision, approval, or finalization published after that time. For reference, NWS designates flood stage at this location as 16.0 feet. The primary resolution source is USGS data for streamgage 03353000; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing USGS data may also be used.**Heavy rainfall from a stalled frontal system in mid-August 2026 drove record or near-record flooding along the White River in central Indiana, with the peak stage at Indianapolis gauges exceeding 20 feet.**
Official NWS and USGS observations, corroborated by Indianapolis Department of Public Works reports, show the river crested at 21.18 feet at the 82nd Street/Nora gauge on August 15—well above the moderate flood threshold of 20 feet and approaching the long-standing record of 22.4 feet set in 1913. Upstream crests in Noblesville and Anderson surpassed prior benchmarks (reaching ~24+ feet), feeding substantial runoff downstream into Marion County. By late August, levels at key Indianapolis sites (Raymond Street, Michigan Street) had receded to ~5–8 feet with no active flooding, confirming the event’s maximum had already occurred.
This observed crest data underpins the market’s 98% implied probability for “Over 20 ft.” Only a major revision to official stage records or a narrowly defined gauge threshold excluding the primary measurement sites could realistically shift the outcome, scenarios considered highly improbable given multiple confirming sources.
This market resolves "Yes" if the maximum gage height recorded at USGS streamgage 03353000 (White River at Indianapolis, IN) between market creation and 11:59 PM EDT August 31, 2026 is less than 14.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Resolution is based on the peak gage height value recorded during the specified window as published by USGS at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-03353000#dataTypeId=continuous-00065-0&period=P7D&showFieldMeasurements=true. USGS real-time data is provisional and subject to revision; the last provisional value published by USGS for the specified window as of 11:59 PM EDT September 1, 2026 governs, regardless of any USGS revision, approval, or finalization published after that time. For reference, NWS designates flood stage at this location as 16.0 feet. The primary resolution source is USGS data for streamgage 03353000; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing USGS data may also be used.
Resolution is based on the peak gage height value recorded during the specified window as published by USGS at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-03353000#dataTypeId=continuous-00065-0&period=P7D&showFieldMeasurements=true. USGS real-time data is provisional and subject to revision; the last provisional value published by USGS for the specified window as of 11:59 PM EDT September 1, 2026 governs, regardless of any USGS revision, approval, or finalization published after that time. For reference, NWS designates flood stage at this location as 16.0 feet. The primary resolution source is USGS data for streamgage 03353000; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing USGS data may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
Volume
$14,630End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves "Yes" if the maximum gage height recorded at USGS streamgage 03353000 (White River at Indianapolis, IN) between market creation and 11:59 PM EDT August 31, 2026 is less than 14.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Resolution is based on the peak gage height value recorded during the specified window as published by USGS at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-03353000#dataTypeId=continuous-00065-0&period=P7D&showFieldMeasurements=true. USGS real-time data is provisional and subject to revision; the last provisional value published by USGS for the specified window as of 11:59 PM EDT September 1, 2026 governs, regardless of any USGS revision, approval, or finalization published after that time. For reference, NWS designates flood stage at this location as 16.0 feet. The primary resolution source is USGS data for streamgage 03353000; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing USGS data may also be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the maximum gage height recorded at USGS streamgage 03353000 (White River at Indianapolis, IN) between market creation and 11:59 PM EDT August 31, 2026 is at or above 14.00 feet and below 17.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Resolution is based on the peak gage height value recorded during the specified window as published by USGS at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-03353000#dataTypeId=continuous-00065-0&period=P7D&showFieldMeasurements=true. USGS real-time data is provisional and subject to revision; the last provisional value published by USGS for the specified window as of 11:59 PM EDT September 1, 2026 governs, regardless of any USGS revision, approval, or finalization published after that time. For reference, NWS designates flood stage at this location as 16.0 feet. The primary resolution source is USGS data for streamgage 03353000; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing USGS data may also be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the maximum gage height recorded at USGS streamgage 03353000 (White River at Indianapolis, IN) between market creation and 11:59 PM EDT August 31, 2026 is at or above 17.00 feet and below 20.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Resolution is based on the peak gage height value recorded during the specified window as published by USGS at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-03353000#dataTypeId=continuous-00065-0&period=P7D&showFieldMeasurements=true. USGS real-time data is provisional and subject to revision; the last provisional value published by USGS for the specified window as of 11:59 PM EDT September 1, 2026 governs, regardless of any USGS revision, approval, or finalization published after that time. For reference, NWS designates flood stage at this location as 16.0 feet. The primary resolution source is USGS data for streamgage 03353000; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing USGS data may also be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the maximum gage height recorded at USGS streamgage 03353000 (White River at Indianapolis, IN) between market creation and 11:59 PM EDT August 31, 2026 is at or above 20.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Resolution is based on the peak gage height value recorded during the specified window as published by USGS at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-03353000#dataTypeId=continuous-00065-0&period=P7D&showFieldMeasurements=true. USGS real-time data is provisional and subject to revision; the last provisional value published by USGS for the specified window as of 11:59 PM EDT September 1, 2026 governs, regardless of any USGS revision, approval, or finalization published after that time. For reference, NWS designates flood stage at this location as 16.0 feet. The primary resolution source is USGS data for streamgage 03353000; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing USGS data may also be used.**Heavy rainfall from a stalled frontal system in mid-August 2026 drove record or near-record flooding along the White River in central Indiana, with the peak stage at Indianapolis gauges exceeding 20 feet.**
Official NWS and USGS observations, corroborated by Indianapolis Department of Public Works reports, show the river crested at 21.18 feet at the 82nd Street/Nora gauge on August 15—well above the moderate flood threshold of 20 feet and approaching the long-standing record of 22.4 feet set in 1913. Upstream crests in Noblesville and Anderson surpassed prior benchmarks (reaching ~24+ feet), feeding substantial runoff downstream into Marion County. By late August, levels at key Indianapolis sites (Raymond Street, Michigan Street) had receded to ~5–8 feet with no active flooding, confirming the event’s maximum had already occurred.
This observed crest data underpins the market’s 98% implied probability for “Over 20 ft.” Only a major revision to official stage records or a narrowly defined gauge threshold excluding the primary measurement sites could realistically shift the outcome, scenarios considered highly improbable given multiple confirming sources.
This market resolves "Yes" if the maximum gage height recorded at USGS streamgage 03353000 (White River at Indianapolis, IN) between market creation and 11:59 PM EDT August 31, 2026 is less than 14.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Resolution is based on the peak gage height value recorded during the specified window as published by USGS at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-03353000#dataTypeId=continuous-00065-0&period=P7D&showFieldMeasurements=true. USGS real-time data is provisional and subject to revision; the last provisional value published by USGS for the specified window as of 11:59 PM EDT September 1, 2026 governs, regardless of any USGS revision, approval, or finalization published after that time. For reference, NWS designates flood stage at this location as 16.0 feet. The primary resolution source is USGS data for streamgage 03353000; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing USGS data may also be used.
Resolution is based on the peak gage height value recorded during the specified window as published by USGS at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-03353000#dataTypeId=continuous-00065-0&period=P7D&showFieldMeasurements=true. USGS real-time data is provisional and subject to revision; the last provisional value published by USGS for the specified window as of 11:59 PM EDT September 1, 2026 governs, regardless of any USGS revision, approval, or finalization published after that time. For reference, NWS designates flood stage at this location as 16.0 feet. The primary resolution source is USGS data for streamgage 03353000; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing USGS data may also be used.
Volume
$14,630End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Heavy rainfall from a stalled frontal system in mid-August 2026 drove record or near-record flooding along the White River in central Indiana, with the peak stage at Indianapolis gauges exceeding 20 feet.** Official NWS and USGS observations, corroborated by Indianapolis Department of Public Works reports, show the river crested at 21.18 feet at the 82nd Street/Nora gauge on August 15—well above the moderate flood threshold of 20 feet and approaching the long-standing record of 22.4 feet set in 1913. Upstream crests in Noblesville and Anderson surpassed prior benchmarks (reaching ~24+ feet), feeding substantial runoff downstream into Marion County. By late August, levels at key Indianapolis sites (Raymond Street, Michigan Street) had receded to ~5–8 feet with no active flooding, confirming the event’s maximum had already occurred. This observed crest data underpins the market’s 98% implied probability for “Over 20 ft.” Only a major revision to official stage records or a narrowly defined gauge threshold excluding the primary measurement sites could realistically shift the outcome, scenarios considered highly improbable given multiple confirming sources.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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