Recent USGS data show 2026’s strongest event remains the M7.8 offshore Mindanao (Philippines) in June, followed by the shallow M7.7 Flores Sea (Indonesia) on 14 August and an M7.4 in Colombia on 10 August; eleven M7.0+ events have occurred year-to-date, consistent with the long-term global average of 15–18 such quakes annually. No M8.0+ rupture has been recorded, aligning with the roughly one-per-year historical frequency, while aftershock sequences from recent events continue to produce moderate activity without accelerating foreshock patterns or strain signals that would indicate an imminent larger rupture. Subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire remain the primary sources capable of great earthquakes, yet official monitoring agencies emphasize that precise short-term forecasts are impossible and current observations fall within normal statistical variability. With only five weeks remaining until 30 September, the brief window further reduces the already low likelihood of an M8+ event before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?
How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?
NEW
Oct 3, 2026
6.5+
100%
7.0+
76%
7.5+
44%
8.0+
9%
8.5+
6%
9.0+
2%
$6,773 Vol.
6.5+
$1,745 Vol.
100%
7.0+
$1,890 Vol.
76%
7.5+
$1,135 Vol.
44%
8.0+
$1,782 Vol.
9%
8.5+
$5 Vol.
6%
9.0+
$216 Vol.
2%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."Recent USGS data show 2026’s strongest event remains the M7.8 offshore Mindanao (Philippines) in June, followed by the shallow M7.7 Flores Sea (Indonesia) on 14 August and an M7.4 in Colombia on 10 August; eleven M7.0+ events have occurred year-to-date, consistent with the long-term global average of 15–18 such quakes annually. No M8.0+ rupture has been recorded, aligning with the roughly one-per-year historical frequency, while aftershock sequences from recent events continue to produce moderate activity without accelerating foreshock patterns or strain signals that would indicate an imminent larger rupture. Subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire remain the primary sources capable of great earthquakes, yet official monitoring agencies emphasize that precise short-term forecasts are impossible and current observations fall within normal statistical variability. With only five weeks remaining until 30 September, the brief window further reduces the already low likelihood of an M8+ event before resolution.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Volume
$6,773End Date
Oct 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."Recent USGS data show 2026’s strongest event remains the M7.8 offshore Mindanao (Philippines) in June, followed by the shallow M7.7 Flores Sea (Indonesia) on 14 August and an M7.4 in Colombia on 10 August; eleven M7.0+ events have occurred year-to-date, consistent with the long-term global average of 15–18 such quakes annually. No M8.0+ rupture has been recorded, aligning with the roughly one-per-year historical frequency, while aftershock sequences from recent events continue to produce moderate activity without accelerating foreshock patterns or strain signals that would indicate an imminent larger rupture. Subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire remain the primary sources capable of great earthquakes, yet official monitoring agencies emphasize that precise short-term forecasts are impossible and current observations fall within normal statistical variability. With only five weeks remaining until 30 September, the brief window further reduces the already low likelihood of an M8+ event before resolution.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Volume
$6,773End Date
Oct 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent USGS data show 2026’s strongest event remains the M7.8 offshore Mindanao (Philippines) in June, followed by the shallow M7.7 Flores Sea (Indonesia) on 14 August and an M7.4 in Colombia on 10 August; eleven M7.0+ events have occurred year-to-date, consistent with the long-term global average of 15–18 such quakes annually. No M8.0+ rupture has been recorded, aligning with the roughly one-per-year historical frequency, while aftershock sequences from recent events continue to produce moderate activity without accelerating foreshock patterns or strain signals that would indicate an imminent larger rupture. Subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire remain the primary sources capable of great earthquakes, yet official monitoring agencies emphasize that precise short-term forecasts are impossible and current observations fall within normal statistical variability. With only five weeks remaining until 30 September, the brief window further reduces the already low likelihood of an M8+ event before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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