**The market-implied odds strongly favor a 2026 maximum of 7.9 or below (72.5%) because the year’s largest event remains the M7.8 Mindanao, Philippines, earthquake of June 7, with a subsequent M7.7 offshore Flores, Indonesia, on August 14 and multiple other M7+ events but no M8.0+.** USGS records show 11 M7+ quakes through late August amid 95 M6+ events overall, consistent with typical global rates of roughly one M8+ per year. Subduction-zone thrust faults capable of great earthquakes have produced only moderate-to-large ruptures so far, and recent activity falls within normal statistical variability without evidence of an emerging megathrust sequence. With four months remaining, traders price the low single-digit odds for 8.0+ outcomes accordingly while recognizing that a rare, large fault-area rupture could still alter the ranking before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below 73%
8.0 – 8.1 9%
8.2 – 8.3 8%
8.6 – 8.7 6%
NEW
NEW
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
73%
8.0 – 8.1
9%
8.2 – 8.3
8%
8.4 – 8.5
4%
8.6 – 8.7
6%
8.8 – 8.9
2%
9.0 or above
5%
7.9 or below 73%
8.0 – 8.1 9%
8.2 – 8.3 8%
8.6 – 8.7 6%
NEW
NEW
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
$1,914 Vol.
73%
8.0 – 8.1
$112 Vol.
9%
8.2 – 8.3
$174 Vol.
8%
8.4 – 8.5
$59 Vol.
4%
8.6 – 8.7
$163 Vol.
6%
8.8 – 8.9
$59 Vol.
2%
9.0 or above
$51 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.**The market-implied odds strongly favor a 2026 maximum of 7.9 or below (72.5%) because the year’s largest event remains the M7.8 Mindanao, Philippines, earthquake of June 7, with a subsequent M7.7 offshore Flores, Indonesia, on August 14 and multiple other M7+ events but no M8.0+.** USGS records show 11 M7+ quakes through late August amid 95 M6+ events overall, consistent with typical global rates of roughly one M8+ per year. Subduction-zone thrust faults capable of great earthquakes have produced only moderate-to-large ruptures so far, and recent activity falls within normal statistical variability without evidence of an emerging megathrust sequence. With four months remaining, traders price the low single-digit odds for 8.0+ outcomes accordingly while recognizing that a rare, large fault-area rupture could still alter the ranking before year-end.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Volume
$2,531End Date
Jan 4, 2027Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.**The market-implied odds strongly favor a 2026 maximum of 7.9 or below (72.5%) because the year’s largest event remains the M7.8 Mindanao, Philippines, earthquake of June 7, with a subsequent M7.7 offshore Flores, Indonesia, on August 14 and multiple other M7+ events but no M8.0+.** USGS records show 11 M7+ quakes through late August amid 95 M6+ events overall, consistent with typical global rates of roughly one M8+ per year. Subduction-zone thrust faults capable of great earthquakes have produced only moderate-to-large ruptures so far, and recent activity falls within normal statistical variability without evidence of an emerging megathrust sequence. With four months remaining, traders price the low single-digit odds for 8.0+ outcomes accordingly while recognizing that a rare, large fault-area rupture could still alter the ranking before year-end.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$2,531End Date
Jan 4, 2027Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**The market-implied odds strongly favor a 2026 maximum of 7.9 or below (72.5%) because the year’s largest event remains the M7.8 Mindanao, Philippines, earthquake of June 7, with a subsequent M7.7 offshore Flores, Indonesia, on August 14 and multiple other M7+ events but no M8.0+.** USGS records show 11 M7+ quakes through late August amid 95 M6+ events overall, consistent with typical global rates of roughly one M8+ per year. Subduction-zone thrust faults capable of great earthquakes have produced only moderate-to-large ruptures so far, and recent activity falls within normal statistical variability without evidence of an emerging megathrust sequence. With four months remaining, traders price the low single-digit odds for 8.0+ outcomes accordingly while recognizing that a rare, large fault-area rupture could still alter the ranking before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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