**Trader sentiment strongly favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide during August 24–30, 2026 (74% implied probability), with a secondary chance of one (22.5%).** This positioning reflects the absence of any confirmed M6.5+ events in the first five days of the window, based on USGS and VolcanoDiscovery catalogs. The most recent events above the threshold occurred earlier in August, including a M6.7 in Peru on August 20 and larger quakes (M7.7 Indonesia, M7.4 Colombia) in mid-month. Seismic catalogs show only lower-magnitude activity since August 24, such as M6.0 events in the Banda Sea (August 24), near Japan (August 23), the Scotia Sea (August 22), and the Gulf of Aden/Somalia region (August 28). Global rates for M6.5+ quakes typically average a handful per week but exhibit significant short-term variability tied to tectonic stress release along major plate boundaries. With only two days remaining and no active clusters or aftershock sequences currently elevating risk, the data support the market's heavy weighting toward zero or one event. New USGS or equivalent monitoring updates through August 30 could still shift outcomes if an unexpected large quake occurs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?
0 74%
1 23%
2 4%
3 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
0
74%
1
23%
2
4%
3
2%
4
1%
5
<1%
more than 5
<1%
0 74%
1 23%
2 4%
3 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
0
$3,048 Vol.
74%
1
$968 Vol.
23%
2
$433 Vol.
4%
3
$671 Vol.
2%
4
$302 Vol.
1%
5
$494 Vol.
<1%
more than 5
$830 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader sentiment strongly favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide during August 24–30, 2026 (74% implied probability), with a secondary chance of one (22.5%).** This positioning reflects the absence of any confirmed M6.5+ events in the first five days of the window, based on USGS and VolcanoDiscovery catalogs. The most recent events above the threshold occurred earlier in August, including a M6.7 in Peru on August 20 and larger quakes (M7.7 Indonesia, M7.4 Colombia) in mid-month.
Seismic catalogs show only lower-magnitude activity since August 24, such as M6.0 events in the Banda Sea (August 24), near Japan (August 23), the Scotia Sea (August 22), and the Gulf of Aden/Somalia region (August 28). Global rates for M6.5+ quakes typically average a handful per week but exhibit significant short-term variability tied to tectonic stress release along major plate boundaries. With only two days remaining and no active clusters or aftershock sequences currently elevating risk, the data support the market's heavy weighting toward zero or one event. New USGS or equivalent monitoring updates through August 30 could still shift outcomes if an unexpected large quake occurs.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
Volume
$6,746End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader sentiment strongly favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide during August 24–30, 2026 (74% implied probability), with a secondary chance of one (22.5%).** This positioning reflects the absence of any confirmed M6.5+ events in the first five days of the window, based on USGS and VolcanoDiscovery catalogs. The most recent events above the threshold occurred earlier in August, including a M6.7 in Peru on August 20 and larger quakes (M7.7 Indonesia, M7.4 Colombia) in mid-month.
Seismic catalogs show only lower-magnitude activity since August 24, such as M6.0 events in the Banda Sea (August 24), near Japan (August 23), the Scotia Sea (August 22), and the Gulf of Aden/Somalia region (August 28). Global rates for M6.5+ quakes typically average a handful per week but exhibit significant short-term variability tied to tectonic stress release along major plate boundaries. With only two days remaining and no active clusters or aftershock sequences currently elevating risk, the data support the market's heavy weighting toward zero or one event. New USGS or equivalent monitoring updates through August 30 could still shift outcomes if an unexpected large quake occurs.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$6,746End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment strongly favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide during August 24–30, 2026 (74% implied probability), with a secondary chance of one (22.5%).** This positioning reflects the absence of any confirmed M6.5+ events in the first five days of the window, based on USGS and VolcanoDiscovery catalogs. The most recent events above the threshold occurred earlier in August, including a M6.7 in Peru on August 20 and larger quakes (M7.7 Indonesia, M7.4 Colombia) in mid-month. Seismic catalogs show only lower-magnitude activity since August 24, such as M6.0 events in the Banda Sea (August 24), near Japan (August 23), the Scotia Sea (August 22), and the Gulf of Aden/Somalia region (August 28). Global rates for M6.5+ quakes typically average a handful per week but exhibit significant short-term variability tied to tectonic stress release along major plate boundaries. With only two days remaining and no active clusters or aftershock sequences currently elevating risk, the data support the market's heavy weighting toward zero or one event. New USGS or equivalent monitoring updates through August 30 could still shift outcomes if an unexpected large quake occurs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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