Recent moderate global seismicity, with no magnitude 6.5+ events in the final days of August 2026 after a cluster including the M7.7 Flores (Indonesia) and M7.4 Chocó (Colombia) shocks earlier in the month, underpins trader views favoring zero or one event in the target window. Worldwide catalogs show typical rates of roughly 15–20 M6.5+ quakes annually, concentrated along subduction zones of the Pacific Ring of Fire, with short-term clustering driven by aftershock sequences and stress transfer rather than uniform occurrence. Current USGS and EMSC data indicate below-average energy release in the past week and no unusual foreshock patterns or swarm activity ahead of the period. Short-term forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to the stochastic nature of fault rupture and the absence of reliable precursors, leaving resolution dependent on real-time monitoring of plate-boundary strain.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
0 45%
1 35%
2 20%
3 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
0
45%
1
35%
2
20%
3
7%
4
4%
5
4%
more than 5
4%
0 45%
1 35%
2 20%
3 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
0
$297 Vol.
45%
1
$120 Vol.
35%
2
$35 Vol.
20%
3
$17 Vol.
7%
4
$17 Vol.
4%
5
$17 Vol.
4%
more than 5
$17 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent moderate global seismicity, with no magnitude 6.5+ events in the final days of August 2026 after a cluster including the M7.7 Flores (Indonesia) and M7.4 Chocó (Colombia) shocks earlier in the month, underpins trader views favoring zero or one event in the target window. Worldwide catalogs show typical rates of roughly 15–20 M6.5+ quakes annually, concentrated along subduction zones of the Pacific Ring of Fire, with short-term clustering driven by aftershock sequences and stress transfer rather than uniform occurrence. Current USGS and EMSC data indicate below-average energy release in the past week and no unusual foreshock patterns or swarm activity ahead of the period. Short-term forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to the stochastic nature of fault rupture and the absence of reliable precursors, leaving resolution dependent on real-time monitoring of plate-boundary strain.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ET
Volume
$519End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent moderate global seismicity, with no magnitude 6.5+ events in the final days of August 2026 after a cluster including the M7.7 Flores (Indonesia) and M7.4 Chocó (Colombia) shocks earlier in the month, underpins trader views favoring zero or one event in the target window. Worldwide catalogs show typical rates of roughly 15–20 M6.5+ quakes annually, concentrated along subduction zones of the Pacific Ring of Fire, with short-term clustering driven by aftershock sequences and stress transfer rather than uniform occurrence. Current USGS and EMSC data indicate below-average energy release in the past week and no unusual foreshock patterns or swarm activity ahead of the period. Short-term forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to the stochastic nature of fault rupture and the absence of reliable precursors, leaving resolution dependent on real-time monitoring of plate-boundary strain.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$519End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderate global seismicity, with no magnitude 6.5+ events in the final days of August 2026 after a cluster including the M7.7 Flores (Indonesia) and M7.4 Chocó (Colombia) shocks earlier in the month, underpins trader views favoring zero or one event in the target window. Worldwide catalogs show typical rates of roughly 15–20 M6.5+ quakes annually, concentrated along subduction zones of the Pacific Ring of Fire, with short-term clustering driven by aftershock sequences and stress transfer rather than uniform occurrence. Current USGS and EMSC data indicate below-average energy release in the past week and no unusual foreshock patterns or swarm activity ahead of the period. Short-term forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to the stochastic nature of fault rupture and the absence of reliable precursors, leaving resolution dependent on real-time monitoring of plate-boundary strain.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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