No catalogued near-Earth objects currently carry trajectories capable of a 5 kt or greater bolide impact in 2026, according to NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring systems updated through late August. Refined orbital solutions from recent detections, including numerous small-meter-scale close approaches, have further reduced residual uncertainties without identifying new risks. Historical fireball records indicate such airbursts occur on roughly annual timescales from undetected impactors, yet comprehensive surveys show zero significant threats aligned with 2026 and ongoing LSST operations continue tightening constraints on the near-Earth population. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 71.5% based on the absence of plausible candidates and low odds of an unexpected discovery before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
29% chance
$312,478 Vol.
$312,478 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
29% chance
$312,478 Vol.
$312,478 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No catalogued near-Earth objects currently carry trajectories capable of a 5 kt or greater bolide impact in 2026, according to NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring systems updated through late August. Refined orbital solutions from recent detections, including numerous small-meter-scale close approaches, have further reduced residual uncertainties without identifying new risks. Historical fireball records indicate such airbursts occur on roughly annual timescales from undetected impactors, yet comprehensive surveys show zero significant threats aligned with 2026 and ongoing LSST operations continue tightening constraints on the near-Earth population. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 71.5% based on the absence of plausible candidates and low odds of an unexpected discovery before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$312,478End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No catalogued near-Earth objects currently carry trajectories capable of a 5 kt or greater bolide impact in 2026, according to NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring systems updated through late August. Refined orbital solutions from recent detections, including numerous small-meter-scale close approaches, have further reduced residual uncertainties without identifying new risks. Historical fireball records indicate such airbursts occur on roughly annual timescales from undetected impactors, yet comprehensive surveys show zero significant threats aligned with 2026 and ongoing LSST operations continue tightening constraints on the near-Earth population. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 71.5% based on the absence of plausible candidates and low odds of an unexpected discovery before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$312,478End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No catalogued near-Earth objects currently carry trajectories capable of a 5 kt or greater bolide impact in 2026, according to NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring systems updated through late August. Refined orbital solutions from recent detections, including numerous small-meter-scale close approaches, have further reduced residual uncertainties without identifying new risks. Historical fireball records indicate such airbursts occur on roughly annual timescales from undetected impactors, yet comprehensive surveys show zero significant threats aligned with 2026 and ongoing LSST operations continue tightening constraints on the near-Earth population. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 71.5% based on the absence of plausible candidates and low odds of an unexpected discovery before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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