Comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA risk lists shows no catalogued asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton atmospheric impact energy in 2026, with all known potential events years away at cumulative probabilities below 1 in hundreds. Ongoing surveys, including recent close-approach tracking of meter-scale bodies, continue refining orbits without raising alerts, while historical patterns confirm megaton-scale bolides occur only sporadically and none are forecasted. Trader consensus at 98.3% “No” reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment of detection networks. The main remaining uncertainty stems from any undiscovered object, though large impactors are statistically rare and increasingly unlikely to evade LSST and radar follow-up through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2% chance
$116,649 Vol.
$116,649 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
2% chance
$116,649 Vol.
$116,649 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA risk lists shows no catalogued asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton atmospheric impact energy in 2026, with all known potential events years away at cumulative probabilities below 1 in hundreds. Ongoing surveys, including recent close-approach tracking of meter-scale bodies, continue refining orbits without raising alerts, while historical patterns confirm megaton-scale bolides occur only sporadically and none are forecasted. Trader consensus at 98.3% “No” reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment of detection networks. The main remaining uncertainty stems from any undiscovered object, though large impactors are statistically rare and increasingly unlikely to evade LSST and radar follow-up through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$116,649End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA risk lists shows no catalogued asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton atmospheric impact energy in 2026, with all known potential events years away at cumulative probabilities below 1 in hundreds. Ongoing surveys, including recent close-approach tracking of meter-scale bodies, continue refining orbits without raising alerts, while historical patterns confirm megaton-scale bolides occur only sporadically and none are forecasted. Trader consensus at 98.3% “No” reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment of detection networks. The main remaining uncertainty stems from any undiscovered object, though large impactors are statistically rare and increasingly unlikely to evade LSST and radar follow-up through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$116,649End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA risk lists shows no catalogued asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton atmospheric impact energy in 2026, with all known potential events years away at cumulative probabilities below 1 in hundreds. Ongoing surveys, including recent close-approach tracking of meter-scale bodies, continue refining orbits without raising alerts, while historical patterns confirm megaton-scale bolides occur only sporadically and none are forecasted. Trader consensus at 98.3% “No” reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment of detection networks. The main remaining uncertainty stems from any undiscovered object, though large impactors are statistically rare and increasingly unlikely to evade LSST and radar follow-up through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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