**Below-average rainfall accumulation in Hong Kong during August 2026 has driven the strong market consensus toward totals below 425 mm (83.0% implied probability).** Official Hong Kong Observatory data through late August show cumulative rainfall near 230–234 mm at the Observatory station, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453 mm for the full month. Multiple mid-month days recorded 0.0 mm or trace amounts, reflecting suppressed convective activity and limited influence from tropical systems such as Zitan, which tracked across the region without delivering prolonged heavy rain to the territory. With only a few days remaining and recent daily totals mostly in the single digits or low tens of millimeters amid scattered showers and thunderstorms, additional accumulation is unlikely to reach the 425 mm threshold. Higher bins (425–450 mm at 9.5%, 700 mm+ at 5.2%) remain low-probability outliers requiring unrealistically intense late-month rainfall. Trader sentiment aligns with verified observational trends from the Hong Kong Observatory, where drier conditions relative to historical baselines have persisted through the final week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
<425mm 91%
425-450mm 13%
700mm+ 4.9%
450-475mm 2.6%
$10,672 Vol.
$10,672 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
83%
425-450mm
10%
450-475mm
3%
475-500mm
1%
500-525mm
<1%
525-550mm
<1%
550-600mm
1%
600-650mm
2%
650-700mm
1%
700mm+
5%
<425mm 91%
425-450mm 13%
700mm+ 4.9%
450-475mm 2.6%
$10,672 Vol.
$10,672 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
$4,591 Vol.
83%
425-450mm
$445 Vol.
10%
450-475mm
$756 Vol.
3%
475-500mm
$446 Vol.
1%
500-525mm
$310 Vol.
<1%
525-550mm
$360 Vol.
<1%
550-600mm
$325 Vol.
1%
600-650mm
$501 Vol.
2%
650-700mm
$588 Vol.
1%
700mm+
$2,350 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Below-average rainfall accumulation in Hong Kong during August 2026 has driven the strong market consensus toward totals below 425 mm (83.0% implied probability).** Official Hong Kong Observatory data through late August show cumulative rainfall near 230–234 mm at the Observatory station, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453 mm for the full month. Multiple mid-month days recorded 0.0 mm or trace amounts, reflecting suppressed convective activity and limited influence from tropical systems such as Zitan, which tracked across the region without delivering prolonged heavy rain to the territory.
With only a few days remaining and recent daily totals mostly in the single digits or low tens of millimeters amid scattered showers and thunderstorms, additional accumulation is unlikely to reach the 425 mm threshold. Higher bins (425–450 mm at 9.5%, 700 mm+ at 5.2%) remain low-probability outliers requiring unrealistically intense late-month rainfall. Trader sentiment aligns with verified observational trends from the Hong Kong Observatory, where drier conditions relative to historical baselines have persisted through the final week.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$10,672End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Below-average rainfall accumulation in Hong Kong during August 2026 has driven the strong market consensus toward totals below 425 mm (83.0% implied probability).** Official Hong Kong Observatory data through late August show cumulative rainfall near 230–234 mm at the Observatory station, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453 mm for the full month. Multiple mid-month days recorded 0.0 mm or trace amounts, reflecting suppressed convective activity and limited influence from tropical systems such as Zitan, which tracked across the region without delivering prolonged heavy rain to the territory.
With only a few days remaining and recent daily totals mostly in the single digits or low tens of millimeters amid scattered showers and thunderstorms, additional accumulation is unlikely to reach the 425 mm threshold. Higher bins (425–450 mm at 9.5%, 700 mm+ at 5.2%) remain low-probability outliers requiring unrealistically intense late-month rainfall. Trader sentiment aligns with verified observational trends from the Hong Kong Observatory, where drier conditions relative to historical baselines have persisted through the final week.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,672End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Below-average rainfall accumulation in Hong Kong during August 2026 has driven the strong market consensus toward totals below 425 mm (83.0% implied probability).** Official Hong Kong Observatory data through late August show cumulative rainfall near 230–234 mm at the Observatory station, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453 mm for the full month. Multiple mid-month days recorded 0.0 mm or trace amounts, reflecting suppressed convective activity and limited influence from tropical systems such as Zitan, which tracked across the region without delivering prolonged heavy rain to the territory. With only a few days remaining and recent daily totals mostly in the single digits or low tens of millimeters amid scattered showers and thunderstorms, additional accumulation is unlikely to reach the 425 mm threshold. Higher bins (425–450 mm at 9.5%, 700 mm+ at 5.2%) remain low-probability outliers requiring unrealistically intense late-month rainfall. Trader sentiment aligns with verified observational trends from the Hong Kong Observatory, where drier conditions relative to historical baselines have persisted through the final week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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