**Central Park observations show 8.04 inches of precipitation through August 26, already well above the 1991–2020 normal of ~3.9 inches for that date and on pace for one of the wettest Augusts in recent years.** Multiple intense convective storms drove the surplus, including nearly 2.9 inches on August 20 and 0.96 inches on August 23, with 12 measurable rain days recorded so far. National Weather Service and short-range forecasts indicate only modest additional totals through month-end, with scattered showers possible on the 27th–28th but rapidly diminishing chances thereafter. This observed surplus and the limited remaining window lock in a strong market-implied probability (>6 inches at 93.4%) for the full-month total. Realistic challenges to this outcome are narrow. Downward revisions to official measurements are possible but historically minor for Central Park data. An extreme, unforecasted deluge could add further accumulation, while near-zero additional rain remains the baseline expectation. Lower bins (<6 inches) would require physically implausible negative precipitation or major data corrections that have not materialized in preliminary NWS summaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in NYC in August?
Precipitation in NYC in August?
>6" 99.0%
3-4" <1%
4-5" <1%
2-3" <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<2"
<1%
2-3"
<1%
3-4"
<1%
4-5"
<1%
5-6"
<1%
>6"
93%
>6" 99.0%
3-4" <1%
4-5" <1%
2-3" <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<2"
$1,247 Vol.
<1%
2-3"
$588 Vol.
<1%
3-4"
$363 Vol.
<1%
4-5"
$338 Vol.
<1%
5-6"
$324 Vol.
<1%
>6"
$1,006 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Central Park observations show 8.04 inches of precipitation through August 26, already well above the 1991–2020 normal of ~3.9 inches for that date and on pace for one of the wettest Augusts in recent years.** Multiple intense convective storms drove the surplus, including nearly 2.9 inches on August 20 and 0.96 inches on August 23, with 12 measurable rain days recorded so far.
National Weather Service and short-range forecasts indicate only modest additional totals through month-end, with scattered showers possible on the 27th–28th but rapidly diminishing chances thereafter. This observed surplus and the limited remaining window lock in a strong market-implied probability (>6 inches at 93.4%) for the full-month total.
Realistic challenges to this outcome are narrow. Downward revisions to official measurements are possible but historically minor for Central Park data. An extreme, unforecasted deluge could add further accumulation, while near-zero additional rain remains the baseline expectation. Lower bins (<6 inches) would require physically implausible negative precipitation or major data corrections that have not materialized in preliminary NWS summaries.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$3,866End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Central Park observations show 8.04 inches of precipitation through August 26, already well above the 1991–2020 normal of ~3.9 inches for that date and on pace for one of the wettest Augusts in recent years.** Multiple intense convective storms drove the surplus, including nearly 2.9 inches on August 20 and 0.96 inches on August 23, with 12 measurable rain days recorded so far.
National Weather Service and short-range forecasts indicate only modest additional totals through month-end, with scattered showers possible on the 27th–28th but rapidly diminishing chances thereafter. This observed surplus and the limited remaining window lock in a strong market-implied probability (>6 inches at 93.4%) for the full-month total.
Realistic challenges to this outcome are narrow. Downward revisions to official measurements are possible but historically minor for Central Park data. An extreme, unforecasted deluge could add further accumulation, while near-zero additional rain remains the baseline expectation. Lower bins (<6 inches) would require physically implausible negative precipitation or major data corrections that have not materialized in preliminary NWS summaries.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,866End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Central Park observations show 8.04 inches of precipitation through August 26, already well above the 1991–2020 normal of ~3.9 inches for that date and on pace for one of the wettest Augusts in recent years.** Multiple intense convective storms drove the surplus, including nearly 2.9 inches on August 20 and 0.96 inches on August 23, with 12 measurable rain days recorded so far. National Weather Service and short-range forecasts indicate only modest additional totals through month-end, with scattered showers possible on the 27th–28th but rapidly diminishing chances thereafter. This observed surplus and the limited remaining window lock in a strong market-implied probability (>6 inches at 93.4%) for the full-month total. Realistic challenges to this outcome are narrow. Downward revisions to official measurements are possible but historically minor for Central Park data. An extreme, unforecasted deluge could add further accumulation, while near-zero additional rain remains the baseline expectation. Lower bins (<6 inches) would require physically implausible negative precipitation or major data corrections that have not materialized in preliminary NWS summaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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