Southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover are the dominant factors moderating temperatures in Manila, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple models indicating a Friday maximum near 29–30 °C amid widespread thunderstorms and fresh southwesterly winds. This outlook aligns with the market’s leading probabilities for 30 °C and 29 °C, while the spread to 31 °C and 28 °C reflects uncertainty in convective timing and potential short-lived breaks in cloud that could allow brief warming. Historical August averages hover near 30–31 °C, but persistent monsoon moisture typically caps extremes; traders appear to weigh the latest model consensus against the risk of localized heating or heavier rain suppressing readings below 28 °C. New PAGASA bulletins and updated global model runs expected overnight will likely refine these odds before the 24-hour observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 28?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 28?
30°C 35%
29°C 23%
31°C 18%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
5%
28°C
7%
29°C
23%
30°C
35%
31°C
18%
32°C
5%
33°C or higher
3%
30°C 35%
29°C 23%
31°C 18%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
23°C or below
$581 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$217 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$487 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$69 Vol.
2%
27°C
$166 Vol.
5%
28°C
$1,272 Vol.
7%
29°C
$1,623 Vol.
23%
30°C
$82 Vol.
35%
31°C
$369 Vol.
18%
32°C
$151 Vol.
5%
33°C or higher
$242 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover are the dominant factors moderating temperatures in Manila, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple models indicating a Friday maximum near 29–30 °C amid widespread thunderstorms and fresh southwesterly winds. This outlook aligns with the market’s leading probabilities for 30 °C and 29 °C, while the spread to 31 °C and 28 °C reflects uncertainty in convective timing and potential short-lived breaks in cloud that could allow brief warming. Historical August averages hover near 30–31 °C, but persistent monsoon moisture typically caps extremes; traders appear to weigh the latest model consensus against the risk of localized heating or heavier rain suppressing readings below 28 °C. New PAGASA bulletins and updated global model runs expected overnight will likely refine these odds before the 24-hour observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$4,601End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover are the dominant factors moderating temperatures in Manila, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple models indicating a Friday maximum near 29–30 °C amid widespread thunderstorms and fresh southwesterly winds. This outlook aligns with the market’s leading probabilities for 30 °C and 29 °C, while the spread to 31 °C and 28 °C reflects uncertainty in convective timing and potential short-lived breaks in cloud that could allow brief warming. Historical August averages hover near 30–31 °C, but persistent monsoon moisture typically caps extremes; traders appear to weigh the latest model consensus against the risk of localized heating or heavier rain suppressing readings below 28 °C. New PAGASA bulletins and updated global model runs expected overnight will likely refine these odds before the 24-hour observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,601End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover are the dominant factors moderating temperatures in Manila, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple models indicating a Friday maximum near 29–30 °C amid widespread thunderstorms and fresh southwesterly winds. This outlook aligns with the market’s leading probabilities for 30 °C and 29 °C, while the spread to 31 °C and 28 °C reflects uncertainty in convective timing and potential short-lived breaks in cloud that could allow brief warming. Historical August averages hover near 30–31 °C, but persistent monsoon moisture typically caps extremes; traders appear to weigh the latest model consensus against the risk of localized heating or heavier rain suppressing readings below 28 °C. New PAGASA bulletins and updated global model runs expected overnight will likely refine these odds before the 24-hour observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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