Current forecast consensus from major models places Madrid's August 29 peak temperature near the 30–31°C range, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions, clear skies, and light variable winds that limit convective cooling or warming. Ensemble spreads from sources such as ECMWF and GFS show maximums clustering between 28–32°C, with the tightest probabilities around seasonal norms of approximately 30.5°C for late August. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon dew points account for the near-even market split between 30°C and 31°C, while historical records indicate rare excursions above 35°C this late in the month. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
30°C 43%
31°C 43%
29°C 10%
32°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
2%
28°C
6%
29°C
10%
30°C
43%
31°C
43%
32°C
8%
33°C
3%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 43%
31°C 43%
29°C 10%
32°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
25°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
26°C
$5 Vol.
4%
27°C
$5 Vol.
2%
28°C
$5 Vol.
6%
29°C
$59 Vol.
10%
30°C
$62 Vol.
43%
31°C
$55 Vol.
43%
32°C
$72 Vol.
8%
33°C
$9 Vol.
3%
34°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from major models places Madrid's August 29 peak temperature near the 30–31°C range, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions, clear skies, and light variable winds that limit convective cooling or warming. Ensemble spreads from sources such as ECMWF and GFS show maximums clustering between 28–32°C, with the tightest probabilities around seasonal norms of approximately 30.5°C for late August. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon dew points account for the near-even market split between 30°C and 31°C, while historical records indicate rare excursions above 35°C this late in the month. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$288End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from major models places Madrid's August 29 peak temperature near the 30–31°C range, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions, clear skies, and light variable winds that limit convective cooling or warming. Ensemble spreads from sources such as ECMWF and GFS show maximums clustering between 28–32°C, with the tightest probabilities around seasonal norms of approximately 30.5°C for late August. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon dew points account for the near-even market split between 30°C and 31°C, while historical records indicate rare excursions above 35°C this late in the month. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$288End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from major models places Madrid's August 29 peak temperature near the 30–31°C range, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions, clear skies, and light variable winds that limit convective cooling or warming. Ensemble spreads from sources such as ECMWF and GFS show maximums clustering between 28–32°C, with the tightest probabilities around seasonal norms of approximately 30.5°C for late August. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon dew points account for the near-even market split between 30°C and 31°C, while historical records indicate rare excursions above 35°C this late in the month. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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