Persistent southwest monsoon flow, recently enhanced by Typhoon Obet (now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility), is driving widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall across Metro Manila through August 29. Official PAGASA guidance projects a maximum of 27°C under 100% rain probability, while ensemble and international models cluster between 27–29°C as thick cloud decks and evaporative cooling limit insolation and surface heating. This contrasts with the long-term August climatology near 30–31°C, illustrating how active monsoon conditions and moisture advection suppress peak temperatures by several degrees. Traders’ tight clustering around 27–29°C reflects this model consensus and the low likelihood of clearing skies that would allow brief excursions to 30°C or higher before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 29?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 29?
28°C 27%
29°C 27%
27°C 18%
30°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
7%
26°C
8%
27°C
18%
28°C
27%
29°C
27%
30°C
15%
31°C
5%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
4%
28°C 27%
29°C 27%
27°C 18%
30°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
7%
26°C
$2 Vol.
8%
27°C
$0 Vol.
18%
28°C
$0 Vol.
27%
29°C
$0 Vol.
27%
30°C
$0 Vol.
15%
31°C
$40 Vol.
5%
32°C
$228 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$100 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flow, recently enhanced by Typhoon Obet (now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility), is driving widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall across Metro Manila through August 29. Official PAGASA guidance projects a maximum of 27°C under 100% rain probability, while ensemble and international models cluster between 27–29°C as thick cloud decks and evaporative cooling limit insolation and surface heating. This contrasts with the long-term August climatology near 30–31°C, illustrating how active monsoon conditions and moisture advection suppress peak temperatures by several degrees. Traders’ tight clustering around 27–29°C reflects this model consensus and the low likelihood of clearing skies that would allow brief excursions to 30°C or higher before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$370End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flow, recently enhanced by Typhoon Obet (now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility), is driving widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall across Metro Manila through August 29. Official PAGASA guidance projects a maximum of 27°C under 100% rain probability, while ensemble and international models cluster between 27–29°C as thick cloud decks and evaporative cooling limit insolation and surface heating. This contrasts with the long-term August climatology near 30–31°C, illustrating how active monsoon conditions and moisture advection suppress peak temperatures by several degrees. Traders’ tight clustering around 27–29°C reflects this model consensus and the low likelihood of clearing skies that would allow brief excursions to 30°C or higher before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$370End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon flow, recently enhanced by Typhoon Obet (now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility), is driving widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall across Metro Manila through August 29. Official PAGASA guidance projects a maximum of 27°C under 100% rain probability, while ensemble and international models cluster between 27–29°C as thick cloud decks and evaporative cooling limit insolation and surface heating. This contrasts with the long-term August climatology near 30–31°C, illustrating how active monsoon conditions and moisture advection suppress peak temperatures by several degrees. Traders’ tight clustering around 27–29°C reflects this model consensus and the low likelihood of clearing skies that would allow brief excursions to 30°C or higher before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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