Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a frontal system and associated low-pressure trough will bring cooler, moist southwesterly flow and widespread showers or rain to Warsaw on August 29, limiting insolation and daytime heating. This setup favors maximum temperatures clustered around 19–21 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 21 °C (25 %), 20 °C (22.5 %), and 19 °C (17.5 %). Seasonal norms for late August highs near 25 °C are suppressed by increased cloud cover, higher humidity, and reduced solar radiation under the unstable maritime air mass. Traders appear to weight the consensus across ECMWF, GFS, and ICON guidance that the thermal boundary will keep the daily peak well below recent warmer days, while acknowledging minor model spread in exact rainfall timing and wind strength that could nudge the outcome within the narrow 19–22 °C window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 29?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 29?
21°C 25%
20°C 23%
19°C 18%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
18%
20°C
23%
21°C
25%
22°C
13%
23°C
9%
24°C
3%
25°C or higher
1%
21°C 25%
20°C 23%
19°C 18%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
15°C or below
$21 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$17 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$29 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$50 Vol.
18%
20°C
$34 Vol.
23%
21°C
$73 Vol.
25%
22°C
$195 Vol.
13%
23°C
$11 Vol.
9%
24°C
$0 Vol.
3%
25°C or higher
$18 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a frontal system and associated low-pressure trough will bring cooler, moist southwesterly flow and widespread showers or rain to Warsaw on August 29, limiting insolation and daytime heating. This setup favors maximum temperatures clustered around 19–21 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 21 °C (25 %), 20 °C (22.5 %), and 19 °C (17.5 %). Seasonal norms for late August highs near 25 °C are suppressed by increased cloud cover, higher humidity, and reduced solar radiation under the unstable maritime air mass. Traders appear to weight the consensus across ECMWF, GFS, and ICON guidance that the thermal boundary will keep the daily peak well below recent warmer days, while acknowledging minor model spread in exact rainfall timing and wind strength that could nudge the outcome within the narrow 19–22 °C window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$464End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a frontal system and associated low-pressure trough will bring cooler, moist southwesterly flow and widespread showers or rain to Warsaw on August 29, limiting insolation and daytime heating. This setup favors maximum temperatures clustered around 19–21 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 21 °C (25 %), 20 °C (22.5 %), and 19 °C (17.5 %). Seasonal norms for late August highs near 25 °C are suppressed by increased cloud cover, higher humidity, and reduced solar radiation under the unstable maritime air mass. Traders appear to weight the consensus across ECMWF, GFS, and ICON guidance that the thermal boundary will keep the daily peak well below recent warmer days, while acknowledging minor model spread in exact rainfall timing and wind strength that could nudge the outcome within the narrow 19–22 °C window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$464End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a frontal system and associated low-pressure trough will bring cooler, moist southwesterly flow and widespread showers or rain to Warsaw on August 29, limiting insolation and daytime heating. This setup favors maximum temperatures clustered around 19–21 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 21 °C (25 %), 20 °C (22.5 %), and 19 °C (17.5 %). Seasonal norms for late August highs near 25 °C are suppressed by increased cloud cover, higher humidity, and reduced solar radiation under the unstable maritime air mass. Traders appear to weight the consensus across ECMWF, GFS, and ICON guidance that the thermal boundary will keep the daily peak well below recent warmer days, while acknowledging minor model spread in exact rainfall timing and wind strength that could nudge the outcome within the narrow 19–22 °C window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions