**Trader consensus centers on an 80–81°F high for New York City on August 27, 2026 (43.5% implied probability), followed by 82–83°F (27.5%), reflecting National Weather Service and private forecasts calling for a lower-80s peak amid widespread cloud cover and afternoon thunderstorms.** Partly sunny conditions early will give way to increasing clouds and a 70% chance of showers or thunderstorms, driven by southerly flow and high humidity that limits surface heating and promotes convective development. This setup aligns with climatological norms near 82°F but is tempered by reduced insolation from storm activity, consistent with recent model runs showing similar suppression. Lower bins (78–79°F at 17%) gain traction if storms arrive earlier or are more widespread, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F given the lack of strong subsidence or clear-sky conditions. Official observations from Central Park and surrounding airports will determine the exact daily maximum for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 27?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 27?
80-81°F 44%
82-83°F 28%
78-79°F 18%
84-85°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
44%
82-83°F
28%
84-85°F
6%
86-87°F
2%
88°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 44%
82-83°F 28%
78-79°F 18%
84-85°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
69°F or below
$178 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$273 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$389 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$117 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$1,302 Vol.
5%
78-79°F
$2,180 Vol.
18%
80-81°F
$1,352 Vol.
44%
82-83°F
$554 Vol.
28%
84-85°F
$602 Vol.
6%
86-87°F
$127 Vol.
2%
88°F or higher
$194 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on an 80–81°F high for New York City on August 27, 2026 (43.5% implied probability), followed by 82–83°F (27.5%), reflecting National Weather Service and private forecasts calling for a lower-80s peak amid widespread cloud cover and afternoon thunderstorms.**
Partly sunny conditions early will give way to increasing clouds and a 70% chance of showers or thunderstorms, driven by southerly flow and high humidity that limits surface heating and promotes convective development. This setup aligns with climatological norms near 82°F but is tempered by reduced insolation from storm activity, consistent with recent model runs showing similar suppression. Lower bins (78–79°F at 17%) gain traction if storms arrive earlier or are more widespread, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F given the lack of strong subsidence or clear-sky conditions. Official observations from Central Park and surrounding airports will determine the exact daily maximum for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$7,270End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on an 80–81°F high for New York City on August 27, 2026 (43.5% implied probability), followed by 82–83°F (27.5%), reflecting National Weather Service and private forecasts calling for a lower-80s peak amid widespread cloud cover and afternoon thunderstorms.**
Partly sunny conditions early will give way to increasing clouds and a 70% chance of showers or thunderstorms, driven by southerly flow and high humidity that limits surface heating and promotes convective development. This setup aligns with climatological norms near 82°F but is tempered by reduced insolation from storm activity, consistent with recent model runs showing similar suppression. Lower bins (78–79°F at 17%) gain traction if storms arrive earlier or are more widespread, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F given the lack of strong subsidence or clear-sky conditions. Official observations from Central Park and surrounding airports will determine the exact daily maximum for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,270End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on an 80–81°F high for New York City on August 27, 2026 (43.5% implied probability), followed by 82–83°F (27.5%), reflecting National Weather Service and private forecasts calling for a lower-80s peak amid widespread cloud cover and afternoon thunderstorms.** Partly sunny conditions early will give way to increasing clouds and a 70% chance of showers or thunderstorms, driven by southerly flow and high humidity that limits surface heating and promotes convective development. This setup aligns with climatological norms near 82°F but is tempered by reduced insolation from storm activity, consistent with recent model runs showing similar suppression. Lower bins (78–79°F at 17%) gain traction if storms arrive earlier or are more widespread, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F given the lack of strong subsidence or clear-sky conditions. Official observations from Central Park and surrounding airports will determine the exact daily maximum for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions