Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a warm anomaly for São Paulo on August 28, driven by a strong high-pressure system promoting subsidence, clear skies, and northerly winds advecting drier, warmer air from interior regions. With typical August highs near 23–25°C, current conditions support peaks of 31–33°C through enhanced solar insolation and the urban heat island effect, where concrete and asphalt retain and reradiate heat. Low humidity and light winds further limit cooling, while minor model differences in timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31–32°C. Updated runs from agencies like INMET or CPTEC ahead of peak afternoon heating could shift probabilities if cloud cover or wind shifts emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 28?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 28?
32°C 36%
31°C 30%
33°C 19%
30°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
5%
30°C
12%
31°C
30%
32°C
36%
33°C
19%
34°C or higher
6%
32°C 36%
31°C 30%
33°C 19%
30°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
24°C or below
$126 Vol.
1%
25°C
$166 Vol.
1%
26°C
$201 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C
$0 Vol.
2%
29°C
$0 Vol.
5%
30°C
$45 Vol.
12%
31°C
$26 Vol.
30%
32°C
$42 Vol.
36%
33°C
$37 Vol.
19%
34°C or higher
$17 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a warm anomaly for São Paulo on August 28, driven by a strong high-pressure system promoting subsidence, clear skies, and northerly winds advecting drier, warmer air from interior regions. With typical August highs near 23–25°C, current conditions support peaks of 31–33°C through enhanced solar insolation and the urban heat island effect, where concrete and asphalt retain and reradiate heat. Low humidity and light winds further limit cooling, while minor model differences in timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31–32°C. Updated runs from agencies like INMET or CPTEC ahead of peak afternoon heating could shift probabilities if cloud cover or wind shifts emerge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$629End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a warm anomaly for São Paulo on August 28, driven by a strong high-pressure system promoting subsidence, clear skies, and northerly winds advecting drier, warmer air from interior regions. With typical August highs near 23–25°C, current conditions support peaks of 31–33°C through enhanced solar insolation and the urban heat island effect, where concrete and asphalt retain and reradiate heat. Low humidity and light winds further limit cooling, while minor model differences in timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31–32°C. Updated runs from agencies like INMET or CPTEC ahead of peak afternoon heating could shift probabilities if cloud cover or wind shifts emerge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$629End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a warm anomaly for São Paulo on August 28, driven by a strong high-pressure system promoting subsidence, clear skies, and northerly winds advecting drier, warmer air from interior regions. With typical August highs near 23–25°C, current conditions support peaks of 31–33°C through enhanced solar insolation and the urban heat island effect, where concrete and asphalt retain and reradiate heat. Low humidity and light winds further limit cooling, while minor model differences in timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31–32°C. Updated runs from agencies like INMET or CPTEC ahead of peak afternoon heating could shift probabilities if cloud cover or wind shifts emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions