**Incoming warm air advection is the dominant driver behind closely matched market-implied odds for São Paulo’s August 28 minimum temperature.** A building high-pressure ridge and northerly flow are replacing cooler air that kept recent overnight lows in the mid-teens Celsius, pushing daytime maxima toward 30–34 °C while limiting nocturnal cooling. Authoritative short-range guidance (GFS, ECMWF, and local Brazilian models) converges on a dawn minimum of roughly 15–19 °C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light winds reducing mixing and allowing modest radiational cooling. The near-even split between “10 °C or below” (~42.5 %) and “20 °C or higher” (~41 %) reflects residual forecast spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact cloud cover timing; small differences in dew-point depression or residual low-level stratus can shift the overnight low by 2–4 °C. Historical climatology places the typical August 28 minimum near 15 °C, so current model consensus sits slightly above normal yet well short of the 20 °C threshold that would require stronger warm-air advection or persistent cloud cover. Traders are therefore weighting the most recent model runs and any evening satellite trends showing whether the warm surge fully suppresses radiational cooling before sunrise on the 28th.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 28?
20°C or higher 85%
10°C or below 83%
19°C 79%
12°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
10°C or below
83%
11°C
47%
12°C
49%
13°C
49%
14°C
49%
15°C
32%
16°C
32%
17°C
26%
18°C
49%
19°C
79%
20°C or higher
85%
20°C or higher 85%
10°C or below 83%
19°C 79%
12°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
83%
11°C
$0 Vol.
47%
12°C
$0 Vol.
49%
13°C
$0 Vol.
49%
14°C
$0 Vol.
49%
15°C
$0 Vol.
32%
16°C
$0 Vol.
32%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
49%
19°C
$0 Vol.
79%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Incoming warm air advection is the dominant driver behind closely matched market-implied odds for São Paulo’s August 28 minimum temperature.** A building high-pressure ridge and northerly flow are replacing cooler air that kept recent overnight lows in the mid-teens Celsius, pushing daytime maxima toward 30–34 °C while limiting nocturnal cooling. Authoritative short-range guidance (GFS, ECMWF, and local Brazilian models) converges on a dawn minimum of roughly 15–19 °C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light winds reducing mixing and allowing modest radiational cooling.
The near-even split between “10 °C or below” (~42.5 %) and “20 °C or higher” (~41 %) reflects residual forecast spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact cloud cover timing; small differences in dew-point depression or residual low-level stratus can shift the overnight low by 2–4 °C. Historical climatology places the typical August 28 minimum near 15 °C, so current model consensus sits slightly above normal yet well short of the 20 °C threshold that would require stronger warm-air advection or persistent cloud cover.
Traders are therefore weighting the most recent model runs and any evening satellite trends showing whether the warm surge fully suppresses radiational cooling before sunrise on the 28th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Incoming warm air advection is the dominant driver behind closely matched market-implied odds for São Paulo’s August 28 minimum temperature.** A building high-pressure ridge and northerly flow are replacing cooler air that kept recent overnight lows in the mid-teens Celsius, pushing daytime maxima toward 30–34 °C while limiting nocturnal cooling. Authoritative short-range guidance (GFS, ECMWF, and local Brazilian models) converges on a dawn minimum of roughly 15–19 °C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light winds reducing mixing and allowing modest radiational cooling.
The near-even split between “10 °C or below” (~42.5 %) and “20 °C or higher” (~41 %) reflects residual forecast spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact cloud cover timing; small differences in dew-point depression or residual low-level stratus can shift the overnight low by 2–4 °C. Historical climatology places the typical August 28 minimum near 15 °C, so current model consensus sits slightly above normal yet well short of the 20 °C threshold that would require stronger warm-air advection or persistent cloud cover.
Traders are therefore weighting the most recent model runs and any evening satellite trends showing whether the warm surge fully suppresses radiational cooling before sunrise on the 28th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Incoming warm air advection is the dominant driver behind closely matched market-implied odds for São Paulo’s August 28 minimum temperature.** A building high-pressure ridge and northerly flow are replacing cooler air that kept recent overnight lows in the mid-teens Celsius, pushing daytime maxima toward 30–34 °C while limiting nocturnal cooling. Authoritative short-range guidance (GFS, ECMWF, and local Brazilian models) converges on a dawn minimum of roughly 15–19 °C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light winds reducing mixing and allowing modest radiational cooling. The near-even split between “10 °C or below” (~42.5 %) and “20 °C or higher” (~41 %) reflects residual forecast spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact cloud cover timing; small differences in dew-point depression or residual low-level stratus can shift the overnight low by 2–4 °C. Historical climatology places the typical August 28 minimum near 15 °C, so current model consensus sits slightly above normal yet well short of the 20 °C threshold that would require stronger warm-air advection or persistent cloud cover. Traders are therefore weighting the most recent model runs and any evening satellite trends showing whether the warm surge fully suppresses radiational cooling before sunrise on the 28th.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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