**Forecast consensus for Amsterdam on August 29, 2026, centers on a daytime high near 21–23°C, directly explaining the market's heaviest weighting on those three outcomes (22°C at 40%, 23°C at 27.5%, 21°C at 22.5%).** Multiple model runs (GFS, ECMWF) show a cooling trend driven by a shift to persistent southwesterly flow, which advects cooler, moister maritime air across the North Sea region after warmer conditions on August 27. This pattern brings increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and stronger winds (15–20+ mph), all of which limit diurnal heating and cap the maximum temperature. Historical climatology reinforces the positioning: late-August average highs in Amsterdam hover around 21–22°C, with records rarely exceeding 28–29°C this late in the season under unsettled regimes. The expected precipitation (30–70% chance in most guidance) and elevated humidity further suppress peaks by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Higher outcomes (24°C+) receive only modest probability because they would require clearer skies or a slower arrival of the cooler air mass—scenarios models currently de-emphasize. Conversely, sub-20°C readings remain low-probability given the still-mild baseline and residual warmth from preceding days. Traders appear to be incorporating ensemble spread and typical model bias in short-range temperature forecasts, producing a tight distribution around the central forecast values while assigning minimal weight to outliers. New model updates or observational trends in the next 24–48 hours could shift the precise peak within this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 29?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 29?
22°C 41%
23°C 27%
21°C 23%
19°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
6%
20°C
5%
21°C
23%
22°C
41%
23°C
27%
24°C
5%
25°C
3%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
1%
22°C 41%
23°C 27%
21°C 23%
19°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$0 Vol.
1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
6%
20°C
$217 Vol.
5%
21°C
$36 Vol.
23%
22°C
$117 Vol.
41%
23°C
$22 Vol.
27%
24°C
$0 Vol.
5%
25°C
$3 Vol.
3%
26°C
$5 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for Amsterdam on August 29, 2026, centers on a daytime high near 21–23°C, directly explaining the market's heaviest weighting on those three outcomes (22°C at 40%, 23°C at 27.5%, 21°C at 22.5%).** Multiple model runs (GFS, ECMWF) show a cooling trend driven by a shift to persistent southwesterly flow, which advects cooler, moister maritime air across the North Sea region after warmer conditions on August 27. This pattern brings increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and stronger winds (15–20+ mph), all of which limit diurnal heating and cap the maximum temperature.
Historical climatology reinforces the positioning: late-August average highs in Amsterdam hover around 21–22°C, with records rarely exceeding 28–29°C this late in the season under unsettled regimes. The expected precipitation (30–70% chance in most guidance) and elevated humidity further suppress peaks by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Higher outcomes (24°C+) receive only modest probability because they would require clearer skies or a slower arrival of the cooler air mass—scenarios models currently de-emphasize. Conversely, sub-20°C readings remain low-probability given the still-mild baseline and residual warmth from preceding days.
Traders appear to be incorporating ensemble spread and typical model bias in short-range temperature forecasts, producing a tight distribution around the central forecast values while assigning minimal weight to outliers. New model updates or observational trends in the next 24–48 hours could shift the precise peak within this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$399End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for Amsterdam on August 29, 2026, centers on a daytime high near 21–23°C, directly explaining the market's heaviest weighting on those three outcomes (22°C at 40%, 23°C at 27.5%, 21°C at 22.5%).** Multiple model runs (GFS, ECMWF) show a cooling trend driven by a shift to persistent southwesterly flow, which advects cooler, moister maritime air across the North Sea region after warmer conditions on August 27. This pattern brings increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and stronger winds (15–20+ mph), all of which limit diurnal heating and cap the maximum temperature.
Historical climatology reinforces the positioning: late-August average highs in Amsterdam hover around 21–22°C, with records rarely exceeding 28–29°C this late in the season under unsettled regimes. The expected precipitation (30–70% chance in most guidance) and elevated humidity further suppress peaks by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Higher outcomes (24°C+) receive only modest probability because they would require clearer skies or a slower arrival of the cooler air mass—scenarios models currently de-emphasize. Conversely, sub-20°C readings remain low-probability given the still-mild baseline and residual warmth from preceding days.
Traders appear to be incorporating ensemble spread and typical model bias in short-range temperature forecasts, producing a tight distribution around the central forecast values while assigning minimal weight to outliers. New model updates or observational trends in the next 24–48 hours could shift the precise peak within this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$399End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus for Amsterdam on August 29, 2026, centers on a daytime high near 21–23°C, directly explaining the market's heaviest weighting on those three outcomes (22°C at 40%, 23°C at 27.5%, 21°C at 22.5%).** Multiple model runs (GFS, ECMWF) show a cooling trend driven by a shift to persistent southwesterly flow, which advects cooler, moister maritime air across the North Sea region after warmer conditions on August 27. This pattern brings increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and stronger winds (15–20+ mph), all of which limit diurnal heating and cap the maximum temperature. Historical climatology reinforces the positioning: late-August average highs in Amsterdam hover around 21–22°C, with records rarely exceeding 28–29°C this late in the season under unsettled regimes. The expected precipitation (30–70% chance in most guidance) and elevated humidity further suppress peaks by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Higher outcomes (24°C+) receive only modest probability because they would require clearer skies or a slower arrival of the cooler air mass—scenarios models currently de-emphasize. Conversely, sub-20°C readings remain low-probability given the still-mild baseline and residual warmth from preceding days. Traders appear to be incorporating ensemble spread and typical model bias in short-range temperature forecasts, producing a tight distribution around the central forecast values while assigning minimal weight to outliers. New model updates or observational trends in the next 24–48 hours could shift the precise peak within this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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