A rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, already reaching Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C in mid-August 2026 with models projecting a very strong or record peak later in the year, is the dominant driver pushing August global mean surface temperatures toward the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly range above pre-industrial levels. This event adds to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and follows record or near-record monthly anomalies through July, including Berkeley Earth’s 1.56°C for that month. Official monitoring from NOAA, ECMWF, and Copernicus shows elevated sea surface temperatures and a likelihood that August 2026 ranks among the warmest months on record, though exact resolution depends on final dataset processing and any late-month variability. Trader consensus reflects high confidence in this central band given the current trajectory and limited downside risk from model spreads.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 72%
1.42–1.45ºC 22%
>1.45ºC 5.1%
1.34–1.37ºC 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
1%
1.34–1.37ºC
5%
1.38–1.41ºC
72%
1.42–1.45ºC
22%
>1.45ºC
5%
1.38–1.41ºC 72%
1.42–1.45ºC 22%
>1.45ºC 5.1%
1.34–1.37ºC 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$366 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$953 Vol.
1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$1,947 Vol.
5%
1.38–1.41ºC
$1,182 Vol.
72%
1.42–1.45ºC
$3,767 Vol.
22%
>1.45ºC
$587 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, already reaching Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C in mid-August 2026 with models projecting a very strong or record peak later in the year, is the dominant driver pushing August global mean surface temperatures toward the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly range above pre-industrial levels. This event adds to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and follows record or near-record monthly anomalies through July, including Berkeley Earth’s 1.56°C for that month. Official monitoring from NOAA, ECMWF, and Copernicus shows elevated sea surface temperatures and a likelihood that August 2026 ranks among the warmest months on record, though exact resolution depends on final dataset processing and any late-month variability. Trader consensus reflects high confidence in this central band given the current trajectory and limited downside risk from model spreads.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$8,803End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, already reaching Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C in mid-August 2026 with models projecting a very strong or record peak later in the year, is the dominant driver pushing August global mean surface temperatures toward the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly range above pre-industrial levels. This event adds to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and follows record or near-record monthly anomalies through July, including Berkeley Earth’s 1.56°C for that month. Official monitoring from NOAA, ECMWF, and Copernicus shows elevated sea surface temperatures and a likelihood that August 2026 ranks among the warmest months on record, though exact resolution depends on final dataset processing and any late-month variability. Trader consensus reflects high confidence in this central band given the current trajectory and limited downside risk from model spreads.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$8,803End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, already reaching Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C in mid-August 2026 with models projecting a very strong or record peak later in the year, is the dominant driver pushing August global mean surface temperatures toward the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly range above pre-industrial levels. This event adds to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and follows record or near-record monthly anomalies through July, including Berkeley Earth’s 1.56°C for that month. Official monitoring from NOAA, ECMWF, and Copernicus shows elevated sea surface temperatures and a likelihood that August 2026 ranks among the warmest months on record, though exact resolution depends on final dataset processing and any late-month variability. Trader consensus reflects high confidence in this central band given the current trajectory and limited downside risk from model spreads.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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