Recent observations and model runs confirm August 2026 surface temperatures are tracking well above 1.5 °C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, driven by a developing strong El Niño, record-breaking extra-polar sea-surface temperatures (peaking near 21.1 °C in late August per Copernicus data), and the underlying anthropogenic warming trend. Daily global means have repeatedly exceeded prior August benchmarks, with land and ocean anomalies both elevated and the month projected near 1.6 °C. The 99.5 % market-implied probability for >1.29 °C reflects this robust observational consensus and limited remaining forecast uncertainty. Only an unprecedented late-month cooling event or substantial downward revision in final datasets would realistically alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,162 Vol.
$14,162 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
99%
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,162 Vol.
$14,162 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,093 Vol.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,778 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$6,294 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observations and model runs confirm August 2026 surface temperatures are tracking well above 1.5 °C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, driven by a developing strong El Niño, record-breaking extra-polar sea-surface temperatures (peaking near 21.1 °C in late August per Copernicus data), and the underlying anthropogenic warming trend. Daily global means have repeatedly exceeded prior August benchmarks, with land and ocean anomalies both elevated and the month projected near 1.6 °C. The 99.5 % market-implied probability for >1.29 °C reflects this robust observational consensus and limited remaining forecast uncertainty. Only an unprecedented late-month cooling event or substantial downward revision in final datasets would realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$14,162End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observations and model runs confirm August 2026 surface temperatures are tracking well above 1.5 °C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, driven by a developing strong El Niño, record-breaking extra-polar sea-surface temperatures (peaking near 21.1 °C in late August per Copernicus data), and the underlying anthropogenic warming trend. Daily global means have repeatedly exceeded prior August benchmarks, with land and ocean anomalies both elevated and the month projected near 1.6 °C. The 99.5 % market-implied probability for >1.29 °C reflects this robust observational consensus and limited remaining forecast uncertainty. Only an unprecedented late-month cooling event or substantial downward revision in final datasets would realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,162End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observations and model runs confirm August 2026 surface temperatures are tracking well above 1.5 °C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, driven by a developing strong El Niño, record-breaking extra-polar sea-surface temperatures (peaking near 21.1 °C in late August per Copernicus data), and the underlying anthropogenic warming trend. Daily global means have repeatedly exceeded prior August benchmarks, with land and ocean anomalies both elevated and the month projected near 1.6 °C. The 99.5 % market-implied probability for >1.29 °C reflects this robust observational consensus and limited remaining forecast uncertainty. Only an unprecedented late-month cooling event or substantial downward revision in final datasets would realistically alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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