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Climate & Science·Pandemics

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

icon for Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Climate & Science·Pandemics

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Aug 31

Sep 30

Dec 31

Aug 31

Sep 30

Dec 31

Polymarket

$7,862,705 Vol.

Polymarket

$7,862,705 Vol.

↑4.5k

$154 Vol.

65%

↑3k

$91,465 Vol.

99%

↑3.5k

$14,129 Vol.

95%

↑4k

$237,983 Vol.

86%

↑5k

$235,831 Vol.

46%

↑7.5k

$186,920 Vol.

14%

↑10k

$6,518,250 Vol.

9%

↑12.5k

$352,205 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.As of August 20, 2026, the CDC has confirmed 2,777 measles cases in the United States for the year—already exceeding the full-year 2025 total of 2,289 and marking the highest annual figure since 1991. Nearly all cases (94%) involve unvaccinated individuals or those with unknown status, with 94% linked to 36 ongoing or carryover outbreaks across 47 jurisdictions. Primary drivers include declining MMR vaccination coverage among kindergarteners (now around 92.4–92.5%, down from 95.2% pre-pandemic) and rising exemption rates, enabling sustained community transmission in under-vaccinated clusters. Hospitalizations stand at 7%, with zero confirmed deaths to date. Weekly CDC surveillance updates through fall, back-to-school transmission risks, and the Pan American Health Organization’s November review of U.S. elimination status (achieved in 2000) represent key upcoming data points that could influence final tallies.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volume
$7,862,705
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 16, 2026, 11:51 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.As of August 20, 2026, the CDC has confirmed 2,777 measles cases in the United States for the year—already exceeding the full-year 2025 total of 2,289 and marking the highest annual figure since 1991. Nearly all cases (94%) involve unvaccinated individuals or those with unknown status, with 94% linked to 36 ongoing or carryover outbreaks across 47 jurisdictions. Primary drivers include declining MMR vaccination coverage among kindergarteners (now around 92.4–92.5%, down from 95.2% pre-pandemic) and rising exemption rates, enabling sustained community transmission in under-vaccinated clusters. Hospitalizations stand at 7%, with zero confirmed deaths to date. Weekly CDC surveillance updates through fall, back-to-school transmission risks, and the Pan American Health Organization’s November review of U.S. elimination status (achieved in 2000) represent key upcoming data points that could influence final tallies.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volume
$7,862,705
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 16, 2026, 11:51 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑500" at 100%, followed by "↑1k" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" has generated $7.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 1, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" is "↑500" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑1k" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.