Trader consensus on no Ebola pandemic in 2026 at 96.3% implied probability reflects the current Bundibugyo virus outbreak's regional confinement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where over 5,500 confirmed cases and roughly 2,600 deaths have occurred since May. WHO data show very high risk inside the DRC and high risk for neighbors, yet low regional and global risk due to rapid detection, contact tracing improvements, and absence of sustained international transmission chains beyond isolated imports. Official designations remain a public health emergency of international concern rather than a pandemic, consistent with historical Ebola patterns of localized epidemics. New model updates or expanded cross-border spread could still alter trajectories before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% chance
$702,967 Vol.
$702,967 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
4% chance
$702,967 Vol.
$702,967 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on no Ebola pandemic in 2026 at 96.3% implied probability reflects the current Bundibugyo virus outbreak's regional confinement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where over 5,500 confirmed cases and roughly 2,600 deaths have occurred since May. WHO data show very high risk inside the DRC and high risk for neighbors, yet low regional and global risk due to rapid detection, contact tracing improvements, and absence of sustained international transmission chains beyond isolated imports. Official designations remain a public health emergency of international concern rather than a pandemic, consistent with historical Ebola patterns of localized epidemics. New model updates or expanded cross-border spread could still alter trajectories before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$702,967End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on no Ebola pandemic in 2026 at 96.3% implied probability reflects the current Bundibugyo virus outbreak's regional confinement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where over 5,500 confirmed cases and roughly 2,600 deaths have occurred since May. WHO data show very high risk inside the DRC and high risk for neighbors, yet low regional and global risk due to rapid detection, contact tracing improvements, and absence of sustained international transmission chains beyond isolated imports. Official designations remain a public health emergency of international concern rather than a pandemic, consistent with historical Ebola patterns of localized epidemics. New model updates or expanded cross-border spread could still alter trajectories before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$702,967End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on no Ebola pandemic in 2026 at 96.3% implied probability reflects the current Bundibugyo virus outbreak's regional confinement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where over 5,500 confirmed cases and roughly 2,600 deaths have occurred since May. WHO data show very high risk inside the DRC and high risk for neighbors, yet low regional and global risk due to rapid detection, contact tracing improvements, and absence of sustained international transmission chains beyond isolated imports. Official designations remain a public health emergency of international concern rather than a pandemic, consistent with historical Ebola patterns of localized epidemics. New model updates or expanded cross-border spread could still alter trajectories before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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