High population immunity from prior SARS-CoV-2 infections and vaccination, combined with ongoing global surveillance showing only low-to-moderate circulation of Omicron subvariants such as XFG and NB.1.8.1, underpins the 96.2% market-implied probability against a new coronavirus pandemic declaration by WHO in 2026. Current data indicate endemic seasonal waves with stable or declining case and death trends, no variants meeting criteria for increased public health risk, and no evidence of novel coronaviruses achieving sustained human-to-human transmission capable of exponential spread. WHO assessments through mid-2026 classify the overall risk as moderate, consistent with endemic rather than pandemic dynamics. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an undetected zoonotic spillover producing a highly transmissible strain with substantial immune evasion or a rapid surveillance gap allowing early undetected escalation before year-end monitoring updates.