**Trader sentiment strongly favors under 150 mm total August precipitation in Seoul (95.5% implied probability) because official station data show only ~130 mm accumulated through August 26—roughly 37% of the long-term normal of 348 mm.** This deficit stems from a notably dry pattern, with most significant falls limited to isolated events (e.g., 54 mm on the 22nd and 40 mm on the 25th) while broader monsoon and typhoon influences largely bypassed the capital. Forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and Korean Meteorological Administration guidance indicate only light additional rain (likely under 20 mm) through month-end amid stabilizing high pressure and reduced convective activity. Historical analogs and current model consensus support the low outcome, though an unforecasted late-month surge could push totals modestly higher.