**Recent Flight 13 success and Elon Musk’s updated timeline are the main drivers of trader sentiment.** On July 24, 2026, Starship’s upper stage achieved precise terminal guidance and a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean, prompting Musk to state that a tower catch would have succeeded had the infrastructure been in place. This validated the vehicle’s reentry and flip maneuver after an orbital-class trajectory, shifting focus from fundamental guidance challenges to operational and regulatory readiness. Musk initially signaled a possible catch attempt on Flight 14 (targeted for late August 2026), but on August 20 he revised the outlook to “a few months,” citing the need for additional confidence before risking a return to the launch site. The tower’s mechanical arms (“chopsticks” or Mechazilla) have already demonstrated booster catches, but capturing the lighter, faster-reentering upper stage after a longer flight profile introduces new variables in approach accuracy, heat-shield performance, and abort logic. Key upcoming catalysts include Flight 14 engine tests and regulatory approvals, potential refinements to the arms for faster response, and the first Starship reflight targeted for late 2026 or early 2027. Traders weigh the demonstrated precision gains against the deliberate pacing SpaceX has adopted to avoid tower damage or vehicle loss.