Recent outages across Claude models including Opus 5, Mythos 5, and Fable 5 have driven trader sentiment, with Anthropic's status page logging at least 13 incident days in August 2026 alone, often involving elevated errors, connectivity issues on claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and Cowork. High demand continues to outpace infrastructure capacity despite major compute investments, producing a pattern of brief but frequent degradations that historically translate to roughly 10-12 affected days per month. The tightly clustered odds around 8-14 days reflect uncertainty over whether September will see sustained scaling improvements or repeat the reliability pressures seen in prior months, with only a slim chance of under five days given the established failure rate.