Persistent delays with Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model explain the market's 94% implied probability of no Pro release by August 31. Announced at Google I/O in May with a June target, the frontier model has remained in partner testing through late August due to shortfalls in coding and agentic performance relative to internal benchmarks and rivals. Google has instead accelerated Flash variants, releasing Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13 with developer optimizations, while shifting emphasis toward training the larger Gemini 4 baseline. With only days left in the month and no confirmed public rollout or API availability, traders see minimal chance of a surprise launch. A last-minute general availability push could still alter odds, though historical patterns favor further slippage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo release by August 31 94.3%
August 31 2.3%
August 27 1.4%
August 30 <1%
$311,695 Vol.
$311,695 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
August 27
1%
August 28
<1%
August 29
1%
August 30
1%
August 31
2%
No release by August 31
94%
No release by August 31 94.3%
August 31 2.3%
August 27 1.4%
August 30 <1%
$311,695 Vol.
$311,695 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
August 27
$9,933 Vol.
1%
August 28
$4,842 Vol.
<1%
August 29
$6,981 Vol.
1%
August 30
$3,764 Vol.
1%
August 31
$9,476 Vol.
2%
No release by August 31
$81,366 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent delays with Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model explain the market's 94% implied probability of no Pro release by August 31. Announced at Google I/O in May with a June target, the frontier model has remained in partner testing through late August due to shortfalls in coding and agentic performance relative to internal benchmarks and rivals. Google has instead accelerated Flash variants, releasing Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13 with developer optimizations, while shifting emphasis toward training the larger Gemini 4 baseline. With only days left in the month and no confirmed public rollout or API availability, traders see minimal chance of a surprise launch. A last-minute general availability push could still alter odds, though historical patterns favor further slippage.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volume
$311,695End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent delays with Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model explain the market's 94% implied probability of no Pro release by August 31. Announced at Google I/O in May with a June target, the frontier model has remained in partner testing through late August due to shortfalls in coding and agentic performance relative to internal benchmarks and rivals. Google has instead accelerated Flash variants, releasing Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13 with developer optimizations, while shifting emphasis toward training the larger Gemini 4 baseline. With only days left in the month and no confirmed public rollout or API availability, traders see minimal chance of a surprise launch. A last-minute general availability push could still alter odds, though historical patterns favor further slippage.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$311,695End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent delays with Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model explain the market's 94% implied probability of no Pro release by August 31. Announced at Google I/O in May with a June target, the frontier model has remained in partner testing through late August due to shortfalls in coding and agentic performance relative to internal benchmarks and rivals. Google has instead accelerated Flash variants, releasing Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13 with developer optimizations, while shifting emphasis toward training the larger Gemini 4 baseline. With only days left in the month and no confirmed public rollout or API availability, traders see minimal chance of a surprise launch. A last-minute general availability push could still alter odds, though historical patterns favor further slippage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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