Anthropic’s June 9 release of Claude Mythos 5 to Project Glasswing partners and the safer public Fable 5 variant reset the clock on its frontier cadence, with traders now assigning roughly 73-74% implied probability to the next Mythos-class model reaching general availability by late September. The model family’s defining traits—state-of-the-art agentic coding, multi-step autonomous vulnerability discovery, and benchmark gains on SWE-bench and CyberGym—have triggered extended U.S. government safety evaluations and restricted rollout protocols that slowed earlier previews. Recent credible reporting points to ongoing internal work on a follow-on “Model 2” or Mythos 6 with further benchmark lifts, but compute constraints and required safeguards continue to shape timelines. Historical 3–5 month cycles between frontier releases, combined with no fresh official announcements since mid-June, anchor the current market consensus while leaving room for regulatory or infrastructure delays to shift the window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNext Mythos-Class Model released by…?
Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?
$322,771 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
August 31
45%
September 9
79%
September 15
89%
September 30
92%
October 31
96%
$322,771 Vol.
August 31
$108,612 Vol.
45%
September 9
$20,643 Vol.
79%
September 15
$22,470 Vol.
89%
September 30
$126,194 Vol.
92%
October 31
$2,780 Vol.
96%
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Anthropic’s June 9 release of Claude Mythos 5 to Project Glasswing partners and the safer public Fable 5 variant reset the clock on its frontier cadence, with traders now assigning roughly 73-74% implied probability to the next Mythos-class model reaching general availability by late September. The model family’s defining traits—state-of-the-art agentic coding, multi-step autonomous vulnerability discovery, and benchmark gains on SWE-bench and CyberGym—have triggered extended U.S. government safety evaluations and restricted rollout protocols that slowed earlier previews. Recent credible reporting points to ongoing internal work on a follow-on “Model 2” or Mythos 6 with further benchmark lifts, but compute constraints and required safeguards continue to shape timelines. Historical 3–5 month cycles between frontier releases, combined with no fresh official announcements since mid-June, anchor the current market consensus while leaving room for regulatory or infrastructure delays to shift the window.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$322,771End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Anthropic’s June 9 release of Claude Mythos 5 to Project Glasswing partners and the safer public Fable 5 variant reset the clock on its frontier cadence, with traders now assigning roughly 73-74% implied probability to the next Mythos-class model reaching general availability by late September. The model family’s defining traits—state-of-the-art agentic coding, multi-step autonomous vulnerability discovery, and benchmark gains on SWE-bench and CyberGym—have triggered extended U.S. government safety evaluations and restricted rollout protocols that slowed earlier previews. Recent credible reporting points to ongoing internal work on a follow-on “Model 2” or Mythos 6 with further benchmark lifts, but compute constraints and required safeguards continue to shape timelines. Historical 3–5 month cycles between frontier releases, combined with no fresh official announcements since mid-June, anchor the current market consensus while leaving room for regulatory or infrastructure delays to shift the window.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$322,771End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s June 9 release of Claude Mythos 5 to Project Glasswing partners and the safer public Fable 5 variant reset the clock on its frontier cadence, with traders now assigning roughly 73-74% implied probability to the next Mythos-class model reaching general availability by late September. The model family’s defining traits—state-of-the-art agentic coding, multi-step autonomous vulnerability discovery, and benchmark gains on SWE-bench and CyberGym—have triggered extended U.S. government safety evaluations and restricted rollout protocols that slowed earlier previews. Recent credible reporting points to ongoing internal work on a follow-on “Model 2” or Mythos 6 with further benchmark lifts, but compute constraints and required safeguards continue to shape timelines. Historical 3–5 month cycles between frontier releases, combined with no fresh official announcements since mid-June, anchor the current market consensus while leaving room for regulatory or infrastructure delays to shift the window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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