Anthropic's Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 variants top independent leaderboards like BenchAlign with scores of 83.4, 83.2, and 83.1 as of August 29, 2026, driven by superior results on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Pro, reasoning tasks, and agentic capabilities in large language models. These models outperform close competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol (82.2) across multimodal and long-context evaluations, reflecting recent July releases and iterative improvements that solidified trader consensus. While the 99% market-implied odds reflect this evidence-backed edge, a late-August breakthrough from rivals or revised third-party evaluations could narrow the gap before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 99.0%
OpenAI <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
Google <1%
$3,020,358 Vol.
$3,020,358 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
99%
OpenAI
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 99.0%
OpenAI <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
Google <1%
$3,020,358 Vol.
$3,020,358 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$507,728 Vol.
99%
OpenAI
$221,264 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$218,075 Vol.
<1%
$243,168 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$187,413 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$166,682 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$119,879 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$35,032 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$237,591 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$48,963 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$297,822 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$19,778 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$502,564 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$22,115 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$24,084 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$38,168 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$25,351 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$23,803 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$14,363 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$24,993 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$41,524 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 variants top independent leaderboards like BenchAlign with scores of 83.4, 83.2, and 83.1 as of August 29, 2026, driven by superior results on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Pro, reasoning tasks, and agentic capabilities in large language models. These models outperform close competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol (82.2) across multimodal and long-context evaluations, reflecting recent July releases and iterative improvements that solidified trader consensus. While the 99% market-implied odds reflect this evidence-backed edge, a late-August breakthrough from rivals or revised third-party evaluations could narrow the gap before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$3,020,358End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 variants top independent leaderboards like BenchAlign with scores of 83.4, 83.2, and 83.1 as of August 29, 2026, driven by superior results on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Pro, reasoning tasks, and agentic capabilities in large language models. These models outperform close competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol (82.2) across multimodal and long-context evaluations, reflecting recent July releases and iterative improvements that solidified trader consensus. While the 99% market-implied odds reflect this evidence-backed edge, a late-August breakthrough from rivals or revised third-party evaluations could narrow the gap before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,020,358End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 variants top independent leaderboards like BenchAlign with scores of 83.4, 83.2, and 83.1 as of August 29, 2026, driven by superior results on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Pro, reasoning tasks, and agentic capabilities in large language models. These models outperform close competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol (82.2) across multimodal and long-context evaluations, reflecting recent July releases and iterative improvements that solidified trader consensus. While the 99% market-implied odds reflect this evidence-backed edge, a late-August breakthrough from rivals or revised third-party evaluations could narrow the gap before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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