Anthropic’s recent general availability of computer use and browser toolsets, alongside Claude Managed Agents with persistent memory and proactive Slack integrations, has driven strong trader consensus around its 73% implied probability. These August 2026 updates enable reliable multi-step orchestration and enterprise workflows, building on Claude models’ leading benchmarks in long-horizon agent tasks and tool-use reliability. OpenAI’s Codex and ChatGPT Work agents continue to see internal adoption and SDK refinements, yet lag in comparable production tooling releases this month, supporting its lower 19.5% odds. Other labs trail further due to fewer demonstrated agent capabilities or integrations. Key catalysts through September include any additional model or safety releases that could shift enterprise evaluations of leading AI agents.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 73%
OpenAI 20%
SpaceXAI 1.6%
Meta 1.3%
$50,129 Vol.
$50,129 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
73%
OpenAI
20%
SpaceXAI
2%
Meta
1%
MiniMax
1%
Microsoft
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
1%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Nvidia
1%
ByteDance
1%
Baidu
1%
Mistral
1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Anthropic 73%
OpenAI 20%
SpaceXAI 1.6%
Meta 1.3%
$50,129 Vol.
$50,129 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$24,949 Vol.
73%
OpenAI
$7,068 Vol.
20%
SpaceXAI
$1,450 Vol.
2%
Meta
$1,311 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$1,180 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$1,111 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,134 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$1,129 Vol.
1%
$1,109 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$1,172 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,109 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$1,156 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$1,134 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$1,171 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$1,115 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$1,128 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$539 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent general availability of computer use and browser toolsets, alongside Claude Managed Agents with persistent memory and proactive Slack integrations, has driven strong trader consensus around its 73% implied probability. These August 2026 updates enable reliable multi-step orchestration and enterprise workflows, building on Claude models’ leading benchmarks in long-horizon agent tasks and tool-use reliability. OpenAI’s Codex and ChatGPT Work agents continue to see internal adoption and SDK refinements, yet lag in comparable production tooling releases this month, supporting its lower 19.5% odds. Other labs trail further due to fewer demonstrated agent capabilities or integrations. Key catalysts through September include any additional model or safety releases that could shift enterprise evaluations of leading AI agents.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
Volume
$50,129End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent general availability of computer use and browser toolsets, alongside Claude Managed Agents with persistent memory and proactive Slack integrations, has driven strong trader consensus around its 73% implied probability. These August 2026 updates enable reliable multi-step orchestration and enterprise workflows, building on Claude models’ leading benchmarks in long-horizon agent tasks and tool-use reliability. OpenAI’s Codex and ChatGPT Work agents continue to see internal adoption and SDK refinements, yet lag in comparable production tooling releases this month, supporting its lower 19.5% odds. Other labs trail further due to fewer demonstrated agent capabilities or integrations. Key catalysts through September include any additional model or safety releases that could shift enterprise evaluations of leading AI agents.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$50,129End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent general availability of computer use and browser toolsets, alongside Claude Managed Agents with persistent memory and proactive Slack integrations, has driven strong trader consensus around its 73% implied probability. These August 2026 updates enable reliable multi-step orchestration and enterprise workflows, building on Claude models’ leading benchmarks in long-horizon agent tasks and tool-use reliability. OpenAI’s Codex and ChatGPT Work agents continue to see internal adoption and SDK refinements, yet lag in comparable production tooling releases this month, supporting its lower 19.5% odds. Other labs trail further due to fewer demonstrated agent capabilities or integrations. Key catalysts through September include any additional model or safety releases that could shift enterprise evaluations of leading AI agents.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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