Anthropic’s commanding 96.3% market-implied probability stems from its Claude models’ leading performance on independent agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified (96% for Opus 5) and strong results across computer-use, browser, and long-horizon tool-use evaluations. The August 19 general availability of production-grade computer and browser toolsets, the Agent Skills API, and recent Claude Tag updates for proactive multi-user workflows have reinforced developer and enterprise adoption. With only days remaining until the August 31 resolution on the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard, no rival has released comparable capabilities. A last-minute benchmark surge or model launch from OpenAI or Google could theoretically narrow the gap, though current timelines make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 96.2%
OpenAI 1.9%
Alibaba <1%
Z.ai <1%
$119,938 Vol.
$119,938 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
96%
OpenAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 96.2%
OpenAI 1.9%
Alibaba <1%
Z.ai <1%
$119,938 Vol.
$119,938 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$21,207 Vol.
96%
OpenAI
$28,659 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$6,720 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$4,160 Vol.
1%
Meta
$6,487 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$7,074 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$7,054 Vol.
<1%
$7,146 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$6,645 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$10,681 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$5,485 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,303 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$515 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,833 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,388 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,557 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$503 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$521 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s commanding 96.3% market-implied probability stems from its Claude models’ leading performance on independent agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified (96% for Opus 5) and strong results across computer-use, browser, and long-horizon tool-use evaluations. The August 19 general availability of production-grade computer and browser toolsets, the Agent Skills API, and recent Claude Tag updates for proactive multi-user workflows have reinforced developer and enterprise adoption. With only days remaining until the August 31 resolution on the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard, no rival has released comparable capabilities. A last-minute benchmark surge or model launch from OpenAI or Google could theoretically narrow the gap, though current timelines make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
Volume
$119,938End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s commanding 96.3% market-implied probability stems from its Claude models’ leading performance on independent agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified (96% for Opus 5) and strong results across computer-use, browser, and long-horizon tool-use evaluations. The August 19 general availability of production-grade computer and browser toolsets, the Agent Skills API, and recent Claude Tag updates for proactive multi-user workflows have reinforced developer and enterprise adoption. With only days remaining until the August 31 resolution on the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard, no rival has released comparable capabilities. A last-minute benchmark surge or model launch from OpenAI or Google could theoretically narrow the gap, though current timelines make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$119,938End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s commanding 96.3% market-implied probability stems from its Claude models’ leading performance on independent agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified (96% for Opus 5) and strong results across computer-use, browser, and long-horizon tool-use evaluations. The August 19 general availability of production-grade computer and browser toolsets, the Agent Skills API, and recent Claude Tag updates for proactive multi-user workflows have reinforced developer and enterprise adoption. With only days remaining until the August 31 resolution on the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard, no rival has released comparable capabilities. A last-minute benchmark surge or model launch from OpenAI or Google could theoretically narrow the gap, though current timelines make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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