Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Opus 5 and Mythos-class models, paired with the general availability of computer-use and browser-use toolsets plus the Agent Skills API, have driven trader consensus toward its 77.5% implied probability for the best AI agent by end of October. These updates enable reliable long-horizon agent workflows, proactive multi-user Slack agents, and production-grade enterprise deployments with improved context handling and safety guardrails. In contrast, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants trail at 12.5% despite competitive benchmarks, while other labs remain below 2% amid fewer verified agent-platform advances. Key near-term catalysts include any additional Claude updates or independent agent leaderboards released before the October resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 78%
OpenAI 13%
Alibaba 1.7%
SpaceXAI <1%
$11,093 Vol.
$11,093 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
78%
OpenAI
13%
Alibaba
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Meta
1%
Moonshot
1%
Xiaomi
1%
ByteDance
1%
Amazon
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Anthropic 78%
OpenAI 13%
Alibaba 1.7%
SpaceXAI <1%
$11,093 Vol.
$11,093 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$6,869 Vol.
78%
OpenAI
$802 Vol.
13%
Alibaba
$209 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$201 Vol.
1%
Meta
$221 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$196 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$216 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$224 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$220 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$229 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$229 Vol.
1%
$171 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$187 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$232 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$227 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$211 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$217 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$232 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Opus 5 and Mythos-class models, paired with the general availability of computer-use and browser-use toolsets plus the Agent Skills API, have driven trader consensus toward its 77.5% implied probability for the best AI agent by end of October. These updates enable reliable long-horizon agent workflows, proactive multi-user Slack agents, and production-grade enterprise deployments with improved context handling and safety guardrails. In contrast, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants trail at 12.5% despite competitive benchmarks, while other labs remain below 2% amid fewer verified agent-platform advances. Key near-term catalysts include any additional Claude updates or independent agent leaderboards released before the October resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$11,093End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Opus 5 and Mythos-class models, paired with the general availability of computer-use and browser-use toolsets plus the Agent Skills API, have driven trader consensus toward its 77.5% implied probability for the best AI agent by end of October. These updates enable reliable long-horizon agent workflows, proactive multi-user Slack agents, and production-grade enterprise deployments with improved context handling and safety guardrails. In contrast, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants trail at 12.5% despite competitive benchmarks, while other labs remain below 2% amid fewer verified agent-platform advances. Key near-term catalysts include any additional Claude updates or independent agent leaderboards released before the October resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$11,093End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Opus 5 and Mythos-class models, paired with the general availability of computer-use and browser-use toolsets plus the Agent Skills API, have driven trader consensus toward its 77.5% implied probability for the best AI agent by end of October. These updates enable reliable long-horizon agent workflows, proactive multi-user Slack agents, and production-grade enterprise deployments with improved context handling and safety guardrails. In contrast, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants trail at 12.5% despite competitive benchmarks, while other labs remain below 2% amid fewer verified agent-platform advances. Key near-term catalysts include any additional Claude updates or independent agent leaderboards released before the October resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions