OpenAI's accelerating revenue trajectory, with annualized run-rate surpassing $40 billion and Q2 2026 revenue at $6.7 billion, underpins trader consensus for an IPO closing market cap above $1.5 trillion at 48.4% implied probability. The company's $852 billion private valuation from its March 2026 round, combined with CEO insistence on a $1 trillion floor and CFO confirmation of a 2027 listing window with potential acceleration, supports market-implied odds favoring a substantial premium upon debut. Sector-wide AI demand and comparable valuations, such as Anthropic's recent mark, further anchor expectations for outcomes between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion while keeping the probability of no IPO by end-2027 low at 9.4%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5T+ 48.2%
1T–1.25T 16.6%
1.25T–1.5T 17%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 15.4%
$157,845 Vol.
$157,845 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
<500B
<1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
6%
1T–1.25T
17%
1.25T–1.5T
17%
1.5T+
48%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
15%
1.5T+ 48.2%
1T–1.25T 16.6%
1.25T–1.5T 17%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 15.4%
$157,845 Vol.
$157,845 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
<500B
$11,921 Vol.
<1%
500–750B
$15,670 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$22,068 Vol.
6%
1T–1.25T
$21,662 Vol.
17%
1.25T–1.5T
$12,928 Vol.
17%
1.5T+
$39,936 Vol.
48%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$33,661 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's accelerating revenue trajectory, with annualized run-rate surpassing $40 billion and Q2 2026 revenue at $6.7 billion, underpins trader consensus for an IPO closing market cap above $1.5 trillion at 48.4% implied probability. The company's $852 billion private valuation from its March 2026 round, combined with CEO insistence on a $1 trillion floor and CFO confirmation of a 2027 listing window with potential acceleration, supports market-implied odds favoring a substantial premium upon debut. Sector-wide AI demand and comparable valuations, such as Anthropic's recent mark, further anchor expectations for outcomes between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion while keeping the probability of no IPO by end-2027 low at 9.4%.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$157,845End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's accelerating revenue trajectory, with annualized run-rate surpassing $40 billion and Q2 2026 revenue at $6.7 billion, underpins trader consensus for an IPO closing market cap above $1.5 trillion at 48.4% implied probability. The company's $852 billion private valuation from its March 2026 round, combined with CEO insistence on a $1 trillion floor and CFO confirmation of a 2027 listing window with potential acceleration, supports market-implied odds favoring a substantial premium upon debut. Sector-wide AI demand and comparable valuations, such as Anthropic's recent mark, further anchor expectations for outcomes between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion while keeping the probability of no IPO by end-2027 low at 9.4%.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$157,845End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI's accelerating revenue trajectory, with annualized run-rate surpassing $40 billion and Q2 2026 revenue at $6.7 billion, underpins trader consensus for an IPO closing market cap above $1.5 trillion at 48.4% implied probability. The company's $852 billion private valuation from its March 2026 round, combined with CEO insistence on a $1 trillion floor and CFO confirmation of a 2027 listing window with potential acceleration, supports market-implied odds favoring a substantial premium upon debut. Sector-wide AI demand and comparable valuations, such as Anthropic's recent mark, further anchor expectations for outcomes between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion while keeping the probability of no IPO by end-2027 low at 9.4%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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