Trader consensus shows high uncertainty around which AI lab ranks third in agent capabilities by end of October, with Other and multiple named contenders implied near 50% probability amid closely matched leading outcomes. Moonshot leads named labs at 33% implied probability, ahead of OpenAI at 26.5%, reflecting trader views on Chinese labs' progress in agentic systems versus established Western players. Competitive dynamics center on demonstrated performance in tool use, multi-step reasoning, and real-world deployment benchmarks for large language models, with upcoming releases or developer events likely to shift sentiment before resolution as product timelines and capability gaps remain fluid.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 33%
OpenAI 27%
Alibaba 12%
Z.ai 9.7%
$13,709 Vol.
$13,709 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Moonshot
33%
OpenAI
27%
Alibaba
12%
Z.ai
10%
Anthropic
7%
5%
Xiaomi
4%
DeepSeek
4%
ByteDance
1%
Meta
1%
Baidu
1%
MiniMax
1%
Nvidia
1%
Amazon
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
Microsoft
8%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Moonshot 33%
OpenAI 27%
Alibaba 12%
Z.ai 9.7%
$13,709 Vol.
$13,709 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Moonshot
$4,829 Vol.
33%
OpenAI
$4,068 Vol.
27%
Alibaba
$414 Vol.
12%
Z.ai
$325 Vol.
10%
Anthropic
$594 Vol.
7%
$290 Vol.
5%
Xiaomi
$252 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$332 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$436 Vol.
1%
Meta
$217 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$212 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$212 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$172 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$189 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$217 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$212 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$241 Vol.
8%
SpaceXAI
$497 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus shows high uncertainty around which AI lab ranks third in agent capabilities by end of October, with Other and multiple named contenders implied near 50% probability amid closely matched leading outcomes. Moonshot leads named labs at 33% implied probability, ahead of OpenAI at 26.5%, reflecting trader views on Chinese labs' progress in agentic systems versus established Western players. Competitive dynamics center on demonstrated performance in tool use, multi-step reasoning, and real-world deployment benchmarks for large language models, with upcoming releases or developer events likely to shift sentiment before resolution as product timelines and capability gaps remain fluid.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$13,709End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus shows high uncertainty around which AI lab ranks third in agent capabilities by end of October, with Other and multiple named contenders implied near 50% probability amid closely matched leading outcomes. Moonshot leads named labs at 33% implied probability, ahead of OpenAI at 26.5%, reflecting trader views on Chinese labs' progress in agentic systems versus established Western players. Competitive dynamics center on demonstrated performance in tool use, multi-step reasoning, and real-world deployment benchmarks for large language models, with upcoming releases or developer events likely to shift sentiment before resolution as product timelines and capability gaps remain fluid.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$13,709End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus shows high uncertainty around which AI lab ranks third in agent capabilities by end of October, with Other and multiple named contenders implied near 50% probability amid closely matched leading outcomes. Moonshot leads named labs at 33% implied probability, ahead of OpenAI at 26.5%, reflecting trader views on Chinese labs' progress in agentic systems versus established Western players. Competitive dynamics center on demonstrated performance in tool use, multi-step reasoning, and real-world deployment benchmarks for large language models, with upcoming releases or developer events likely to shift sentiment before resolution as product timelines and capability gaps remain fluid.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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