Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 release in mid-July has driven its 65% implied probability for third place, with the 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model posting top or near-top scores on agent benchmarks for tool use, multi-step planning, long-context execution, and BrowseComp tasks as of late August. Strong developer adoption, $300 million annualized revenue, and a $35 billion valuation reflect real traction in cost-efficient agent workloads that rivals U.S. closed models on select metrics. SpaceXAI (xAI) at 12.8% benefits from recent Grok Bot agent tooling and NVIDIA Vera CPU infrastructure for orchestration, while OpenAI and Anthropic sit lower as frontrunners in overall agentic indices. Chinese labs including Z.ai and DeepSeek add competitive pressure through open-weight performance, though the narrow September window leaves limited room for further shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedThird-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
Moonshot 65.1%
OpenAI 9.3%
SpaceXAI 6.7%
Anthropic 4.3%
$38,608 Vol.
$38,608 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
65%
OpenAI
9%
SpaceXAI
7%
Anthropic
4%
Z.ai
4%
Alibaba
2%
Meta
1%
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Nvidia
1%
Baidu
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 65.1%
OpenAI 9.3%
SpaceXAI 6.7%
Anthropic 4.3%
$38,608 Vol.
$38,608 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
$23,427 Vol.
65%
OpenAI
$6,042 Vol.
9%
SpaceXAI
$472 Vol.
7%
Anthropic
$2,318 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$1,938 Vol.
4%
Alibaba
$379 Vol.
2%
Meta
$272 Vol.
1%
$425 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$377 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$420 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$357 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$293 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$303 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$343 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$306 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$320 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$298 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$318 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 release in mid-July has driven its 65% implied probability for third place, with the 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model posting top or near-top scores on agent benchmarks for tool use, multi-step planning, long-context execution, and BrowseComp tasks as of late August. Strong developer adoption, $300 million annualized revenue, and a $35 billion valuation reflect real traction in cost-efficient agent workloads that rivals U.S. closed models on select metrics. SpaceXAI (xAI) at 12.8% benefits from recent Grok Bot agent tooling and NVIDIA Vera CPU infrastructure for orchestration, while OpenAI and Anthropic sit lower as frontrunners in overall agentic indices. Chinese labs including Z.ai and DeepSeek add competitive pressure through open-weight performance, though the narrow September window leaves limited room for further shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$38,608End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 release in mid-July has driven its 65% implied probability for third place, with the 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model posting top or near-top scores on agent benchmarks for tool use, multi-step planning, long-context execution, and BrowseComp tasks as of late August. Strong developer adoption, $300 million annualized revenue, and a $35 billion valuation reflect real traction in cost-efficient agent workloads that rivals U.S. closed models on select metrics. SpaceXAI (xAI) at 12.8% benefits from recent Grok Bot agent tooling and NVIDIA Vera CPU infrastructure for orchestration, while OpenAI and Anthropic sit lower as frontrunners in overall agentic indices. Chinese labs including Z.ai and DeepSeek add competitive pressure through open-weight performance, though the narrow September window leaves limited room for further shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$38,608End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 release in mid-July has driven its 65% implied probability for third place, with the 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model posting top or near-top scores on agent benchmarks for tool use, multi-step planning, long-context execution, and BrowseComp tasks as of late August. Strong developer adoption, $300 million annualized revenue, and a $35 billion valuation reflect real traction in cost-efficient agent workloads that rivals U.S. closed models on select metrics. SpaceXAI (xAI) at 12.8% benefits from recent Grok Bot agent tooling and NVIDIA Vera CPU infrastructure for orchestration, while OpenAI and Anthropic sit lower as frontrunners in overall agentic indices. Chinese labs including Z.ai and DeepSeek add competitive pressure through open-weight performance, though the narrow September window leaves limited room for further shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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