Moonshot AI leads trader consensus at 65% implied probability for third-best AI agent lab by end-September 2026 due to its July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, which delivered frontier-level results on coding, tool-use, and multi-step agent benchmarks while releasing open weights and AgentENV infrastructure for scalable reinforcement learning. This rapid capability jump, including top Arena frontend coding scores and competitive agentic index placements, has elevated Moonshot relative to established U.S. labs. OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI trade at single-digit odds as frontrunners expected to occupy the top two spots, with remaining labs clustered near 50% reflecting uncertainty in the crowded middle tier. Resolution hinges on the arena.ai Agent Arena Labs leaderboard on September 30, where further Kimi updates or benchmark shifts could still alter positioning before close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedThird-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
Moonshot 65.1%
OpenAI 7.9%
Z.ai 4.9%
Alibaba 2.0%
$38,608 Vol.
$38,608 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
65%
OpenAI
8%
Z.ai
5%
Alibaba
2%
Anthropic
2%
SpaceXAI
10%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
1%
1%
Nvidia
1%
Baidu
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 65.1%
OpenAI 7.9%
Z.ai 4.9%
Alibaba 2.0%
$38,608 Vol.
$38,608 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
$23,427 Vol.
65%
OpenAI
$6,042 Vol.
8%
Z.ai
$1,938 Vol.
5%
Alibaba
$379 Vol.
2%
Anthropic
$2,318 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$472 Vol.
10%
Meta
$272 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$377 Vol.
1%
$425 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$420 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$357 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$293 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$303 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$343 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$306 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$320 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$298 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$318 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI leads trader consensus at 65% implied probability for third-best AI agent lab by end-September 2026 due to its July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, which delivered frontier-level results on coding, tool-use, and multi-step agent benchmarks while releasing open weights and AgentENV infrastructure for scalable reinforcement learning. This rapid capability jump, including top Arena frontend coding scores and competitive agentic index placements, has elevated Moonshot relative to established U.S. labs. OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI trade at single-digit odds as frontrunners expected to occupy the top two spots, with remaining labs clustered near 50% reflecting uncertainty in the crowded middle tier. Resolution hinges on the arena.ai Agent Arena Labs leaderboard on September 30, where further Kimi updates or benchmark shifts could still alter positioning before close.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$38,608End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI leads trader consensus at 65% implied probability for third-best AI agent lab by end-September 2026 due to its July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, which delivered frontier-level results on coding, tool-use, and multi-step agent benchmarks while releasing open weights and AgentENV infrastructure for scalable reinforcement learning. This rapid capability jump, including top Arena frontend coding scores and competitive agentic index placements, has elevated Moonshot relative to established U.S. labs. OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI trade at single-digit odds as frontrunners expected to occupy the top two spots, with remaining labs clustered near 50% reflecting uncertainty in the crowded middle tier. Resolution hinges on the arena.ai Agent Arena Labs leaderboard on September 30, where further Kimi updates or benchmark shifts could still alter positioning before close.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$38,608End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI leads trader consensus at 65% implied probability for third-best AI agent lab by end-September 2026 due to its July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, which delivered frontier-level results on coding, tool-use, and multi-step agent benchmarks while releasing open weights and AgentENV infrastructure for scalable reinforcement learning. This rapid capability jump, including top Arena frontend coding scores and competitive agentic index placements, has elevated Moonshot relative to established U.S. labs. OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI trade at single-digit odds as frontrunners expected to occupy the top two spots, with remaining labs clustered near 50% reflecting uncertainty in the crowded middle tier. Resolution hinges on the arena.ai Agent Arena Labs leaderboard on September 30, where further Kimi updates or benchmark shifts could still alter positioning before close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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