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Tech·AI

Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

icon for Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Tech·AI

Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

$47,561 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$47,561 Vol.

Polymarket

45%+

$21,212 Vol.

76%

50%+

$5,280 Vol.

56%

55%+

$9,776 Vol.

32%

60%+

$9,512 Vol.

21%

65%+

$1,781 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Grok models currently trail the HLE frontier at roughly 42.9% with Grok 4.6, well behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 (54.9–64.7% across leaderboards) and other leaders like GPT-5 variants. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, built by CAIS and Scale AI to resist saturation, tests graduate-level reasoning across math, physics, biology, and humanities with minimal memorization risk. xAI has delivered steady gains through successive Grok releases since 2025, driven by scale and reasoning-focused training, yet verified no-tools scores show slower closure versus rivals’ architectural and post-training advances. Key catalysts through December 2026 include further Grok iterations, potential tool-augmented or agentic evaluations, and any public HLE submissions that could shift trader-implied odds on thresholds like 45%+ versus 55%+.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$47,561
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://agi.safe.ai/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Grok models currently trail the HLE frontier at roughly 42.9% with Grok 4.6, well behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 (54.9–64.7% across leaderboards) and other leaders like GPT-5 variants. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, built by CAIS and Scale AI to resist saturation, tests graduate-level reasoning across math, physics, biology, and humanities with minimal memorization risk. xAI has delivered steady gains through successive Grok releases since 2025, driven by scale and reasoning-focused training, yet verified no-tools scores show slower closure versus rivals’ architectural and post-training advances. Key catalysts through December 2026 include further Grok iterations, potential tool-augmented or agentic evaluations, and any public HLE submissions that could shift trader-implied odds on thresholds like 45%+ versus 55%+.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$47,561
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://agi.safe.ai/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "45%+" at 76%, followed by "50%+" at 56%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 76¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?" has generated $47.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?" is "45%+" at 76%, meaning the market assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "50%+" at 56%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.