Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 currently leads its lineup with scores reaching 62.1% on select HLE leaderboards (such as BenchLM’s August 2026 update) and 46.2% on standard Artificial Analysis text-only evaluations, placing it within a few points of Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5. Recent gains stem from Meta’s focus on advanced reasoning modes, chain-of-thought scaling, and closed-weight optimizations that have accelerated progress beyond earlier Llama releases. Traders weigh the likelihood of further refinements or a new Muse iteration before December 31 against Anthropic and OpenAI’s continued frontier pushes, noting HLE’s design as a hard-to-saturate benchmark of graduate-level questions across math, science, and humanities. Key near-term catalysts include Meta’s next model announcements, developer conference updates, or documented benchmark submissions that could shift the highest Meta score toward or past the 60% threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,154 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
55%+
49%
60%+
32%
65%+
14%
70%+
7%
$24,154 Vol.
55%+
$15,970 Vol.
49%
60%+
$3,063 Vol.
32%
65%+
$3,567 Vol.
14%
70%+
$1,555 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 currently leads its lineup with scores reaching 62.1% on select HLE leaderboards (such as BenchLM’s August 2026 update) and 46.2% on standard Artificial Analysis text-only evaluations, placing it within a few points of Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5. Recent gains stem from Meta’s focus on advanced reasoning modes, chain-of-thought scaling, and closed-weight optimizations that have accelerated progress beyond earlier Llama releases. Traders weigh the likelihood of further refinements or a new Muse iteration before December 31 against Anthropic and OpenAI’s continued frontier pushes, noting HLE’s design as a hard-to-saturate benchmark of graduate-level questions across math, science, and humanities. Key near-term catalysts include Meta’s next model announcements, developer conference updates, or documented benchmark submissions that could shift the highest Meta score toward or past the 60% threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$24,154End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 currently leads its lineup with scores reaching 62.1% on select HLE leaderboards (such as BenchLM’s August 2026 update) and 46.2% on standard Artificial Analysis text-only evaluations, placing it within a few points of Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5. Recent gains stem from Meta’s focus on advanced reasoning modes, chain-of-thought scaling, and closed-weight optimizations that have accelerated progress beyond earlier Llama releases. Traders weigh the likelihood of further refinements or a new Muse iteration before December 31 against Anthropic and OpenAI’s continued frontier pushes, noting HLE’s design as a hard-to-saturate benchmark of graduate-level questions across math, science, and humanities. Key near-term catalysts include Meta’s next model announcements, developer conference updates, or documented benchmark submissions that could shift the highest Meta score toward or past the 60% threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$24,154End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 currently leads its lineup with scores reaching 62.1% on select HLE leaderboards (such as BenchLM’s August 2026 update) and 46.2% on standard Artificial Analysis text-only evaluations, placing it within a few points of Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5. Recent gains stem from Meta’s focus on advanced reasoning modes, chain-of-thought scaling, and closed-weight optimizations that have accelerated progress beyond earlier Llama releases. Traders weigh the likelihood of further refinements or a new Muse iteration before December 31 against Anthropic and OpenAI’s continued frontier pushes, noting HLE’s design as a hard-to-saturate benchmark of graduate-level questions across math, science, and humanities. Key near-term catalysts include Meta’s next model announcements, developer conference updates, or documented benchmark submissions that could shift the highest Meta score toward or past the 60% threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
74%
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
85%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
87%
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Frequently Asked Questions